With the NFL season finished, we’re turning that sad reality into our way too early look at the 2016 fantasy football draft.
In this edition of looking ahead to 2016, we’re eyeing five wide receivers who finished 16th through 20th in fantasy points in 2015.
16. Sammy Watkins, Buffalo, 158.80 points
Hype train: All Aboard
Watkins wasn’t the epitome of consistency in 2016. However, when he did perform, he was a top-tier receiver.
From weeks 12 to 17, he went for double-digits five times, with two of those outings featuring more than 20 fantasy points.
He does have a few strikes against him, though. Tyrod Taylor isn’t a passing quarterback, making it difficult to imagine Watkins to be a top-level wide receiver each week. He also suffered from injury problems, missing four games in 2015.
That won’t cut it as a WR1 in 2016. We doubt his value will be that high next season, giving him high upside as a WR2. He’s the only playmaker among wide receivers on Buffalo, making him an ideal pick as a WR2 for fantasy owners.
17. Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City, 156.20 points
Hype train: Hop off
We don’t trust Alex Smith as a passer. That’s why we’re hopping off the Maclin bandwagon.
That’s not the only reason why we’re not buying Maclin for next season. The Chiefs’ vertical passing game still didn’t make enough strides to make us want to believe in Maclin next year and we doubt that will get any better in 2016.
Maclin will have to fight for looks with Jamaal Charles, who will be a top-tier running back again in 2016. Sharing those looks should drop him down a bit.
Maclin was too touchdown-dependent down the stretch, going for double-digit points in five of the final six weeks. However, he only managed more than 70 yards in two of those games.
We can’t count on him netting that many touchdowns next year, especially with Charles being reinserted into the lineup. He’ll be valued too high to take in 2016.
18. Emmanuel Sanders, Denver, 148.40 points
Hype train: All Aboard
Despite having an atrocious option at the quarterback position, the Broncos had two top-20 options at wide receiver. That’s something to think about next season when the Broncos should be more settled at the position.
Sanders went for six double-digit performances in 14 games. And he didn’t only tally his points through touchdowns.
He netted eight games with 85 or more yards receiving, which is a good barometer for continued success.
He’s shown the ability to be a top option, despite Thomas being the main target for the Broncos. With Thomas appearing to be on the decline, that should leave open more room for Sanders to continue to increase his production.
We love Sanders’ upside, especially if he’s rated as a low WR2/high WR3. He has the potential to be a WR1, so he should produce great value.
19. Michael Crabtree, Oakland, 146.20 points
Hype train: Hop off
Crabtree was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners, going from off the radar to a top-20 option in 2015. Crabtree benefited from a solid passing attack from Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders.
We doubt Carr will stop slinging the ball next season, but we don’t see Crabtree as a consistent option in 2016.
As Amari Cooper became more of a focal point in the offense, Crabtree’s role decreased. From weeks 10 to 17, he went for double-digit fantasy points only once. He even found the endzone four times during the stretch, and still could only get to 10 points or more once.
That’s a bad sign for fantasy owners in 2016. Before week 10, Crabtree had four double-digit games.
The Raiders’ offense will be even better next season, but that won’t help Crabtree’s fantasy value. If he’s available in later rounds, he’d be worth a flier. Don’t reach for him in the earlier rounds, though.
20. Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia, 145.70 points
Hype train: Just right
Matthews will be an interesting player in 2016. His value was sky-high entering 2015, but that was based on his ability to score points in Chip Kelly’s system.
That didn’t quite pan out for fantasy owners, so his value should be in the low WR2/high WR3 range, which is exactly where he belongs. He’s the best receiver on an Eagles offense that likely has to be better. It would be difficult to be any worse.
Getting a team’s top receiver at the expected value of Matthews would be a coup for any fantasy owner. He has shown in the past to be a consistent weapon at the receiver position, giving hope to fantasy owners in 2016.
We’re not sure what the Eagles will look like on offense in 2016, but Matthews will be a quality pick in the middle rounds.
