We’ve gone from consistently good to consistently inconsistent.
Three weeks ago, we generated one win against the spread in our NFL ATS Lockness Monsters. Two weeks ago, we lost only once against the spread.
This past week, thanks to the Cowboys meltdown, we only generated one win against the spread. We’re still above .500 and have plenty of time to right the ship.
Here’s our five best bets for week 11 in the NFL.
Last week: 1-4 ATS
Season: 27-21-2 ATS
Tennessee at Jacksonville (-3)
Get your week started on a high note with our new favorite team — the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Oddsmakers and the betting public are still treating the Jaguars like the dumpster fire they’ve been in the past, giving those who are backing Jacksonville an inside track to weekly covers.
Jacksonville is 2-1 straight up and 3-0 ATS in the previous three games and enter this week’s Thursday night game against Tennessee as only a field-goal favorite.
We’ve backed the Titans too much recently, so we’re hopping off that train for the foreseeable future. Sure, we enjoyed the nice cover against New Orleans, but other than that game, we haven’t seen that offense do anything.
In five of the last six games, minus the win at New Orleans, Tennessee has scored a combined 46 points. If you’re scoring at home, that’s less than 10 points per game during that time period.
The Titans have a revolving door at the running back position and Marcus Mariota has looked good at times, but also struggled against competent defenses.
The Jaguars are one of the best defenses in the NFL against the run, so Mariota will have to pass often against Jacksonville’s secondary. That will be a tall task, especially on a short week on the road.
We like home teams on Thursday nights in specific matchups, so we’re taking the Jaguars to cover the field-goal spread. — Go chalk with Jacksonville
Tampa Bay (+6) at Philadelphia
Philadelphia is about as confusing as any team in the NFL.
One week, it can run the ball and the offense is flowing. The next week, the Eagles can’t run the ball, and punting becomes an endless endeavor.
If the running game can’t get moving, then the Eagles offense struggles. And against Tampa Bay, that running game should struggle to get anything going.
The Buccaneers allow just a little more than 100 yards rushing per game, but more importantly, the defense allows 3.6 yards per carry, the third-lowest mark in the NFL.
We know that Mark Sanchez knows the Eagles offense and did some nice things last year, but he’s still a downgrade from starter Sam Bradford. That’s a bad sign entering Sunday, especially if the Eagles have to depend on Sanchez to move the offense by himself.
We don’t see the Eagles doing much offensively, which should allow Jameis Winston more opportunities to showcase his improved play on the field. We’re going with Tampa Bay to keep this closer than many experts believe. — Go against the chalk with Tampa Bay
Green Bay at Minnesota (Even)
Let’s do a test.
Put Green Bay’s name on the front of Minnesota’s jerseys and put Minnesota on Green Bay’s jerseys. What would the spread be in that scenario?
The Vikings are surging, while the Packers are reeling, and the betting public is still backing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. We don’t necessarily blame them, considering Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
But Minnesota is one of the best pass defenses in the NFL and can rush the passer as well as most teams. That will force the Green Bay receivers to get open, and that just hasn’t happened recently.
We believe the Packers will attempt to establish the run against Minnesota, but we’re not buying that as the answer to beat Minnesota.
The Vikings are the hottest team in the NFL against the spread, going 8-0 ATS since its opening week 1 loss. Oddsmakers still haven’t adjusted, giving bettors great value again with the Vikings.
We know Rodgers hasn’t lost this many games in a row in his career. But his offense just isn’t good enough to put up points against a vaunted Vikings defense. Take the Vikings to win. — Go for the win with Minnesota
Cincinnati at Arizona (-2.5)
The entire nation forgot about Andy Dalton’s primetime troubles after only one game this season — at home on a Thursday night against Cleveland. Yes, you read that right, against Cleveland, which was starting Johnny Manziel.
That’s why we weren’t sold on the Bengals as a Survivor pool pick in week 10, based on not enough information that Dalton was truly a different quarterback.
He’s not, and he showed that once again Monday night against Houston.
So we were a bit surprised to see Arizona as less than a field-goal favorite against the Bengals on another primetime platform, this time on Sunday night.
Don’t be fooled by that score against Seattle. The Cardinals dominated that game and threw at will against a stingy Seahawks pass defense.
Now, back at home, we’re taking the Cardinals to move the ball successfully against another quality defense in the Bengals.
We’ve been high on the Cardinals since day one, and we believe that roster may be the most talented in the NFL. With a healthy Carson Palmer at quarterback, we trust the Cardinals to not suffer a letdown after a big Sunday night win.
Fade the Bengals this week. — Go chalk with Arizona
Kansas City at San Diego (+3)
We know everybody is on the Kansas City Chiefs hype train.
We’re not jumping on so quick.
The last two games for the Chiefs have been in London and Denver. Sure, there was a bye week in-between, but this week will give Kansas City three consecutive road games, going from England, to the Midwest to the West Coast.
That’s a lot of traveling for anybody to handle. We believe that toll will have an effect this week against San Diego, which is coming off a bye week.
Sure, the Chargers have been a disappointment this season, but they’ve been in pretty much every game to the end. A few hops here, or a few opportunities there, and San Diego’s record could be much different.
And we’re not freaking out about Kansas City’s recent win streak. The three wins have come against the Steelers without Big Ben, against the Lions, and against Peyton Manning and the Broncos.
That’s not exactly a glowing recommendation for future success.
We still don’t trust that offense on a weekly basis and the Chargers should be motivated for this game. — Go against the chalk with San Diego
