We kept our head above water last week in our NFL Lockness Monsters going 3-2 against the spread. This week will present a special challenge as there’s some difficult matchups to decipher and now’s the time for some NFL teams to throw in the towel.
Despite the uncertainty, here’s our five best bets against the spread for week 12 in the NFL season.
Last week: 3-2 ATS
Season: 30-23-2 ATS
New York Giants (-3) at Washington
We’re not flipping out about Washington’s big loss last week. That’s been par for the course for the Redskins this season. Lose big on the road and then return home and play much better.
So we expect a much better version of the Redskins this week. But it won’t be enough.
The Giants are simply a better team than Washington. Had it not been for a few meltdowns this season, New York would own a much better record than its 5-5 mark.
And with New York coming off a bye, we anticipate the Giants to be ready. Since 2010, New York is 4-1 straight up coming off a bye, winning by an average of 10 points per game.
In this one, the Giants will likely pass, and despite having a decent defense against the pass, the Redskins are one of the worst teams at getting to the quarterback. Washington has only 17 sacks this season, the sixth-lowest total in the NFL.
Without the ability to apply pressure on Eli Manning, the Redskins will fail to cover. — Go chalk with New York
Pittsburgh (+4) at Seattle
Speaking of teams really good after bye weeks, the Steelers will travel as an underdog against Seattle this week.
We get it. The national media and the betting public still want to believe this Seahawks team is on the same level as previous years. But we just don’t see it.
Even last week during a cover against San Francisco, that offense struggled at times against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. That’s not to mention the periodic spurts where Blaine Gabbert looked competent at the quarterback position.
So, although we get it, we’re not backing the national opinion. There’s something different about these Seahawks and the Steelers will expose it, much like Arizona did. Pittsburgh is 5-1 straight up after a bye week since 2010, and can throw the ball as well as any team. That will put pressure on a secondary that isn’t as good as in years past.
We know it’s in Seattle, but we’re still taking the Steelers with the points. — Go against the chalk with Pittsburgh
Philadelphia (Even) at Detroit
Everyone is giving up on Philadelphia. That means we’ll back them in this Thanksgiving matchup.
To see how much these teams’ fortunes have turned, just imagine what this spread would have been just a few weeks ago. Now, the Eagles are losers of two straight, while the Lions have rattled off wins against Green Bay and Oakland.
But just because the Eagles failed to look competent last week doesn’t mean all is lost for Chip Kelly and his team. Unlike many in the national media, we still believe Kelly can coach and should have his team prepared for the national audience Thursday.
And we’ve said all along that if the Eagles can run the football, they’re a much more dangerous team. Against the Lions, running the football shouldn’t be much of a problem. The Lions allow 116.7 yards rushing per game and have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL with 15.
That will help the Eagles’ offense get off the ground, no matter who will suit up in the quarterback position. We know everyone hates the Eagles at this point which is even more reason to like Philadelphia this week. It is the NFL after all, where the unexpected is generally the best pick. — Go for the win with Philadelphia
Minnesota (+2) at Atlanta
This might be a bad sign, but we like road teams…a lot this week.
We understand that the Falcons got off to a good start, but lately, Atlanta is playing like a team destined to not compete for a playoff spot. The Falcons are 1-4 straight up in the last five games and are under .500 against the spread this season.
It seems that oddsmakers are just waiting for the Falcons to return to their early season form, but that may not be the true Atlanta team. The team we’ve seen during the last five weeks may actually be the more accurate Atlanta Falcons.
And for Minnesota, Teddy Bridgewater has shown in his NFL career to be an above-average quarterback in a dome. He also does well without pressure, which is something he’ll see Sunday against Atlanta. The Falcons are tied for the least amount of sacks this season at 12.
Don’t give up on the Vikings after last week’s performance. Minnesota will reduce the penalties and get back on track against the Falcons. — Go against the chalk with Minnesota
Oakland at Tennessee (+2)
We’ll see how Oakland handles the season’s first slump. We’ve been concerned how their youthful team would respond to adversity and we don’t believe in back-to-back road games that Oakland will come to play against Tennessee.
The Titans should be getting healthier at the wide receiver position with Kendall Wright expected to return this week. The added weapon will help Marcus Mariota put up better numbers and move the ball at a better rate than in previous weeks.
And don’t forget about the Raiders’ inability to stop the opposition’s tight ends. Delanie Walker has been Mariota’s top target and that shouldn’t stop this week.
Derek Carr has been average of late and part of his issues have pressure. The Titans can rush the quarterback, totaling the third-most sacks in the NFL with 31. Tennessee also allows only 214 yards passing per game, good enough to be ranked third in the NFL against the pass.
Tennessee’s problem resides on offense, but with the Raiders defense, ranked fourth from the bottom, that shouldn’t be much of an issue. We’re not buying the Raiders in back-to-back weeks on the road. — Go against the chalk with Tennessee
