No matter what we do this weekend, we’re going to finish above .500 ATS in the NFL. We got hosed a few times (including last week’s Dallas game), and we’ve been fortunate at times (including New England’s late cover in week 15).
No matter how you look at it, though, going above .500 for the season on five bets is a decent proposition for anybody. Here’s our five best bets for the final week of the regular season in the NFL.
Last week: 2-3 ATS
Season: 42-36-2 ATS
New York Jets at Buffalo (+3)
We’re actually getting points in this game? Book it.
Let’s face it, the Bills won’t be more than a .500 team as long as Rex Ryan is their coach. The guy is way too emotional to have a team win double-digit games. His teams are too high and too low to manage through a NFL season.
However, because he’s such an emotional coach, you can make fairly logical decisions on when his teams will be ready to play. And this game, with his former team the Jets vying for a playoff berth, will be like the Super Bowl for Ryan.
Look at the first time the Bills defeated the Jets. That was on the road on a Thursday night, and it was as if the Bills had just made the playoffs with the way he acted on the sideline.
So, we like the Bills motivation, but we also like their ability to make plays and win this game. Tyrod Taylor is a weapon as a quarterback, and he seems to be more comfortable at home than on the road. At home, Taylor is 4-2 as a starter with a 70 percent completion mark.
On the road, he’s 3-4 and completes 59 percent of his passes.
And when did we get excited about the Jets’ road warrior abilities. Since starting the season 2-0 straight up and ATS on the road, the Jets are 2-3 straight up and against the spread.
Those two victories were by three points apiece, too.
In the season’s final week, we’re looking for motivation. The Bills should have the edge in this game as the Jets tighten up with a playoff spot on the line. — Go against the chalk with Buffalo
St. Louis (-3.5) at San Francisco
All of sudden, St. Louis has hit the early season switch.
The Rams went on a five-game sabbatical from winning in the middle part of the season, but in the last three games, they’ve looked competent once again.
The defense is flying around and the offense is doing just enough to keep the Rams afloat.
This game is all about which team is better. We don’t like the Rams having to play back-to-back road games this late in the season, but the 49ers really can’t do much on offense.
And that’s a bad sign against a Rams team that limits the opposing teams’ opportunities.
The Rams area the third-best defense on third down, allowing a 34 percent rate for opposing offenses on third down. The 49ers are the second-worst team on third down in the NFL, registering a 29 percent third-down conversion rate.
San Francisco’s offense won’t be on the field long enough to score any points in this game. — Go chalk with St. Louis
Oakland (+7.5) at Kansas City
This is one of those games where we believe oddsmakers have valued the Chiefs too high.
What Kansas City has done in the final two-thirds of the season is remarkable. But we’ve seen their number slowly creep up and they haven’t covered.
Bettors that were riding the Chiefs train starting with the Steelers victory on Oct. 25, enjoyed six straight covers.
Then, oddsmakers adjusted, giving the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt and moving them more in the double-digit spread advantage.
It worked two weeks ago against Baltimore, but it didn’t work against the Chargers and Browns in the last three weeks. The Chiefs aren’t a team that should be that highly favored, especially against an explosive offense like Oakland.
The Raiders throw for almost 250 yards per game and Derek Carr seems almost more comfortable on the road than at home. On the road, he’s 4-3 with a 16-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio. HIs QBR on the road is 102.3 compared to his home QBR of 84.3.
The Raiders are young enough to care about this game and should be motivated, especially with the way Kansas City beat them in the first game. — Go against the chalk with Oakland
Tampa Bay at Carolina (-11)
We hate giving away big numbers like this. This week, though, it’s tough not to take some of the big favorites…and there are plenty of major favorites.
Seven games on Sunday will feature spreads of a touchdown or more. For the NFL, that’s incredibly high.
And with the Panthers, we don’t see any way that Tampa Bay will compete.
Carolina will have the motivation necessary to make quick work of the Buccaneers. The Panthers lost last week and need to win this week to keep their No. 1 seed.
We’re not going to knee-jerk reaction last week’s loss. The Falcons are playing better and they have the talent to sneak up on any NFL team. That loss will wake up the Panthers a little bit after a lackluster second half against the New York Giants and rough game last week.
And it’s not as if the Panthers haven’t crushed opponents at home this season. The Panthers are 7-0 at home, with five of those victories by a touchdown or more. Three of those wins were by 11 points or more.
The Panthers will employ a solid running game against a Tampa Bay team that has struggled against the run in recent weeks. The Buccaneers have allowed an average of 113 rushing yards per game in the past three weeks.
They won’t stop the Panthers this week and Carolina runs home with the top seed in the NFC. — Go chalk with Carolina
Baltimore at Cincinnati (-9)
This is another game where we giving away a lot of points, but we don’t see the Ravens coming back this week.
That was an emotionally charged victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which despite the records is still a rivalry game. The Ravens treated that game as such, and should come down emotionally this week against a Bengals team looking to get back on track after last week’s overtime loss to Denver.
Before last week, the Ravens couldn’t do anything on offense. We expect that trend to continue against a solid Bengals defense. Baltimore just doesn’t have any weapons offensively and that won’t work against the Bengals. We don’t see Baltimore doing what it did two consecutive weeks, so we’re giving away a lot of points in favor of the Bengals. — Go chalk with Cincinnati
