Week 1 is always a time for adjustments. It’s not just for the teams preparing on the field. It’s also for oddsmakers, who set the week 1 betting lines well in advance.
So it’s no wonder that several line adjustments have occurred in anticipation of the week 1 opening in the NFL.
But don’t be so fooled by the massive changes, though. Many will hop on those movements, believing the experts know something the general public doesn’t. If history tells us anything, that isn’t always the case.
Here’s the biggest line movers of week 1 in the NFL and why you should book it or back off.
Carolina (-3) at Denver
Line movement: 4 points
Denver opened as a one-point favorite, but has since seen oddsmakers dismiss the Broncos at home in game one.
The Panthers enter the season’s first game as three-point favorites, likely thanks to uncertainty surrounding Denver’s quarterback situation. I was all over Carolina when this line opened, even before it became known that Denver would be a dumpster fire at quarterback.
The Panthers are motivated to wipe away that Super Bowl taste from its mouth. I don’t see this one staying in single digits. Go with the movement. – Go with the line
Cincinnati (-3) at New York Jets
Line movement: 4.5 points
Usually I have a pretty good clue as to why there was such a line movement, but I’m scratching my head on this one. Since the line opened, Ryan Fitzpatrick signed with the Jets, seemingly making the Jets a better option than before the line opened to the public.
I’m assuming many bettors believe the Jets are overvalued by the public, thanks to a better-than-advertised offense last season. That offense doesn’t keep pace with last year’s run, but the Jets as a home field-goal underdog in week 1 has me giddy about this pick.
New York can still play defense and the Bengals just don’t have the offensive weapons returning from last year. I disagree with the movement. – Back away from the line
Cleveland at Philadelphia (-4)
Line movement: 3 points
So this line movement has everything to do with Philadelphia’s surrender for the 2016 season.
The Eagles are starting a rookie quarterback who only a week ago was their third-stringer. I can’t make this up. I’m actually surprised this line only moved three points, allowing the Eagles to still be more than a field goal favorite.
Cleveland won’t win many games this season. But if you’re dying to put a moneyline on the Browns this season, this might be the perfect opportunity. – Go with the line
New England at Arizona (-6)
Line movement: 7 points
Maybe I’m crazy. But is Tom Brady worth seven points for a team that has had weeks to prepare? Bill Belichick is still the best coach in football and I’m not giving up on him, even without Brady.
I could be completely wrong in this one, but I love the value the Patriots offer in week 1. How many times can I get New England as almost a touchdown underdog? That likely won’t ever happen again.
I’m the only person in the world down on the Cardinals this season, but I’m buying a much better New England defense to keep this within a touchdown. – Back away from the line
New York Giants (-1) at Dallas
Line movement: 5 points
As opposed to the Bengals game mentioned above, I’m certain as to why this line moved. We were all in on the Cowboys during the summer, but injuries and suspensions have caught up to the offense and defense, making the betting public scurry away from Dallas.
I’m still not sold on Dallas being a complete problem, but I do like what New York did in the offseason to improve. I would have loved the Giants as four-point underdogs with Tony Romo at quarterback.
I’m still backing the Giants with Dak Prescott as the QB. I believe the general public is valuing Prescott too high based on his preseason performance, giving way to this line staying within a field goal. – Go with the line
