How good is our mark? If we were in the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest, which features the best professional football handicappers, we’d be 4.5 points out of first place. The top 50 placewinners receive money, and our number would put us 0.5 points out of the money. This contest last year featured more than 1,000 handicappers and the winner last year received $736,000.
But it’s still early and don’t get too excited, since we’re not in the contest anyway.
Games are about to get tougher to predict. Oddsmakers are starting to understand which teams are good, and which teams are not.
Last week: 4-1 ATS
Season: 20-10 ATS
Atlanta (-4) at Tennessee
Are we not overreacting just a little with Atlanta’s recent loss to New Orleans?
We understand that the Saints aren’t lighting the world on fire, but surely, oddsmakers have more respect for New Orleans than Tennessee.
The Falcons entered last week’s game with a similar spread as they enter this week. We know Atlanta lost to New Orleans, but you’ve heard us rail before on the road team on a Thursday night game.
The road team is usually a bad play on a Thursday and that’s been proven consistently throughout the years. Now, Atlanta gets extra rest and will face a Titans team that is fading fast.
After storming past Tampa Bay in week 1, Tennessee has been everything but the offense that we saw in the first week. This is the fourth consecutive home game for the Titans (how does that happen?), but if it looks anything like last week, we’re confident in Atlanta.
The Titans, losers of fourth straight, couldn’t stop the run…again…and Miami cruised last week to a 28-point win.
We haven’t been impressed with Matt Ryan during the last few weeks, but we know he’s capable of being a quality quarterback, so we’re not hitting the panic button yet. And Devonta Freeman should have a field day against the Titans’ porous rush defense.
Tennessee’ offense has been limited to two touchdowns or less in three of five games. Atlanta’s defense has shown it can stop teams for long stretches.
This is a bad matchup for Tennessee and we’re laying the points. — Go chalk with Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh at Kansas City (+2)
We’ve been pretty negative about Kansas City this season…and with good reason.
The Chiefs have been atrocious on offense and looked the part last week against Minnesota.
But that defense is still competent and can stop the run. Last week the defense shut down arguably the best running back in the NFL, Adrian Peterson, so we like this week’s matchup with Pittsburgh.
The Chiefs are a top-10 defense against the run, limiting the opposition to less than 100 yards per game. What’s more remarkable about that is that Kansas City limits the opposition to 3.6 yards per carry, the third-best mark in the NFL.
Teams attempt to run, but Kansas City still stops them.
With Pittsburgh, we have a team that will most likely once again try to run early and often, especially with a third-string quarterback at the helm. We’ve seen what Landry Jones could do in college, and we’re not taking the bait.
This is the second week of not having Jamaal Charles, so the offense should look better. We’re not completely giving up on Kansas City. — Go against the chalk with Kansas City
New Orleans at Indianapolis (-5)
We saw some things we liked with Indianapolis last week against New England.
The Colts moved the ball effectively, and most importantly, Andrew Luck took care of the ball.
This week, as long as Luck can continue holding on to the football, the Colts should be able to move the ball at will against the Saints. New Orleans has the worst defense in the NFL, allowing 409.7 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play.
On the road, New Orleans has been atrocious, going without a win so far. The last time the Saints were on the road, they were getting crushed by Philadelphia.
Let’s not look too much into last Thursday’s win against Atlanta. As previously mentioned, those games are made for the home team, so we’re not clouding our handicapping vision with that win.
The Saints will not be able to make enough stops to stay within a touchdown. — Go chalk with Indianapolis
Oakland (+4) at San Diego
San Diego has no running game. That works well for Phillip Rivers fantasy football owners, but doesn’t bode well for Chargers fans.
We have too many questions regarding San Diego’s offensive line and we’re not sure how long the Chargers can stay afloat if it can’t run the ball. The Chargers have allowed 17 sacks this season, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL.
The Raiders don’t rush the passer at an elite level, but they can hold their own in the sack category.
We have to believe San Diego is exhausted, too. The Chargers played a tough Monday Night Football game two weeks ago, and then went to the wire with Green Bay last week in an epic performance by Rivers.
Now, the Chargers come back home against a Raiders team that is well rested off of a bye. The more we think about this, the more we like this matchup.
The Raiders are one of the best teams at stopping the run, so the Chargers will once again have to air it out constantly. We don’t like that strategy as a favorite.
We’re getting points and we trust the Raiders off the bye week. — Go against the chalk with Oakland Raiders
Minnesota (-3) at Detroit
We’ve been pretty high on Minnesota recently, so we’re going to keep the good vibes going.
Minnesota is 4-0 against the spread in the last four games and we don’t believe oddsmakers have quite caught up to what Minnesota can do on a weekly basis.
Sure, the Vikings were horrible in week 1 on national television, so that may be the reason why everyone’s slow to Minnesota’s streaking ATS record. That’s fine with us, since we’re only laying a field goal against Detroit.
Let’s face it, the Lions’ defense is atrocious. Chicago had several chances to get into the endzone last week and just didn’t convert enough. And while we’ve seen advances in the Bears’ secondary, they still have a tough time rushing the passer, which is something the Vikings have shown to be good at during the last few weeks.
The last time Minnesota played Detroit, we were worried for Matthew Stafford’s safety.
The Vikings will be able to run the ball and as the season progresses, we believe Teddy Bridgewater will keep getting better. He’s developing more of a rapport with his receivers and some of those missing weapons are returning.
We’re not going overboard with Detroit’s win last week. The Vikings have enough on the defensive end to stop Detroit and should win this one by more than a field goal. — Go chalk with Minnesota
