With hours remaining before the NFL season, it’s time to unveil the week 1 Lockness Monsters for the NFL.
Week 1 isn’t a great opportunity to make the big bucks, but here’s our five best bets for this week in the NFL.
Miami (-4) at Washington
This game featured early movement, with Miami going from a 1-5-point favorite to four points early in the line history. It’s stayed quiet since that early movement, and much of that likely has to do with the Redskins being the home team.
In this case, that shouldn’t matter. Since 2012, the Redskins are 10-15 against the spread as a home team. That includes losing by an average of five points, and losing against the spread by an average of 4.7 points.
Meanwhile, Miami isn’t as bad on the road as what common perception would have you believe. The Dolphins are above .500 at 12-11 against the spread on the raod, and has a margin of victory of 1.1 points.
Even without those numbers, this game feels like Miami has a definite edge. The Dolphins are the better team, and no matter how many times we have to remind you that week 1 isn’t a great judge for future prognosticating, it’s still a smart move to go with the better team. — Go chalk with Miami
New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5)
We’re not buying into the line movement in favor of New Orleans. This opening line had the Cardinals as three-point favorites. The line only moved .5 of a point, but with the Cardinals being one of the best teams in the NFL last season before they were bit by the quarterback injury bug, this doesn’t make sense.
Arizona is healthy and should be as deadly on defense as it is on offense in the early going. Arizona’s offense didn’t only suffer from quarterback injuries, but running back Andre Ellington also battled injuries last season, too. With everyone back on offense, this team should be able to move the ball efficiently to go along with a stingy defense.
New Orleans just didn’t do much for us last season and didn’t do enough in the offseason to resurrect optimism. With the spread set at less than a field goal, this should go in the bank. — Go chalk with Arizona
Cincinnati at Oakland (+3)
We can’t put our finger on it, but we’re thinking Cincinnati suffers a step back this season.
And while we’re talking about what progress will be made this season, the Raiders are poised to be better. It’s difficult to get worse than Oakland’s recent history, but with the young talent stocked on the Raiders’ roster, we’re encouraged by their chances this year.
The only issue with Oakland is it will likely be inconsistent. About the time you think Oakland is on a hot streak, it will likely do the opposite. But in week 1, we see that defense, led by Khalil Mack, disrupting what the Bengals want to do.
Oddsmakers are giving Oakland bettors three points, so go ahead and take them and run. — Go against the chalk with Oakland
Cleveland (+3.5) at New York Jets
Why is the betting public siding with New York?
The opening line has moved the Jets to more than a field goal favorite, and there’s not much of a reason why. Neither team has a quality quarterback, but we’ve seen Josh McCown have success in the past. We haven’t seen that with Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
The Browns weren’t horrible last year despite plenty of distractions. There has been little attention toward Cleveland this year, and that’s just the way it likes it.
Cleveland’s run defense won’t offer much resistance against the Jets, but we don’t see New York having any luck passing the ball. Look for this game to be low-scoring, but the Browns should keep this within a field goal. — Go against the chalk with Cleveland
Indianapolis (-3) at Buffalo
We get that Buffalo has talent. The Bills have a stingy defense and have weapons on offense. But in the most important position in the NFL, the Bills will trot out Tyrod Taylor to square off against Andrew Luck.
That matchup is a bit lopsided.
This game may come down to the final whistle, so which quarterback do you trust? Is it Taylor, the first-year starter who has been in the league for a few years. Or Luck, who is considered one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
The Colts are the better team and Luck is the best player on the field. Buffalo will be a tough matchup for any team, but we’re siding with the Colts to pull this out in the end. — Go chalk with Indianapolis
