Oddsshark recently released over/under regular season win totals for National Football League teams.
Here is a look at the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South.
Over/under
Oddsshark has Indianapolis at 11 regular season wins. Last year, the Colts went 11-5 in the regular season.
The upside
There’s a lot to like about the Indianapolis Colts this year. Quarterback Andrew Luck is another year older and his growth should continue on its upward swing. The team is likely to benefit from last year’s run to the AFC Championship game. And being in the AFC South has plenty of advantages.
The Colts are heavy favorites to win the South. Sure, the Colts are good, but one of the reasons why they are tied for the NFL-lead in projected wins, is that they face Tennessee, Jacksonville and Houston two times each. And the Colts will square off against the NFC South, giving them one of the easier schedules in the NFL.
Luck should get some help on offense this season, with the addition of wide receiver Andre Johnson and running back Frank Gore. T.Y. Hilton will start alongside Johnson, giving the Colts a solid 1-2 combination on the outside.
The downside
How much talent do the Colts actually have?
Obviously Luck is good, but it seems like he’s covered up a lot of holes during his NFL career. The offense just hasn’t had any playmakers, other than Hilton. The Colts are hoping Johnson and Gore can live up to the hype, but both players are in their 30s, and are coming off years in which they didn’t register top-tier numbers.
And the defense is pretty average. The Colts finished in the middle of the pack in points allowed last season, and Robert Mathis, who has been the team’s sack leader, is expected to return this year after missing last year due to injury. How well he can perform will likely be the determining factor in how good the Colts can ultimately be on the defensive side of the ball.
The verdict
The Colts took a major step toward being in the upper echelon of the NFL by advancing to the AFC Championship game last season. The team now believes they belong, and if Luck continues to progress, there may not be many teams that can compete on a weekly basis with the Colts.
The biggest issue is how much talent actually exists on the Colts’ roster. It’s similar to the days of Peyton Manning on the Colts, when the team just didn’t seem that great, and Manning filled a lot of holes. When Manning was injured, those holes were glaring. Then Luck comes, and all of sudden, those holes are less pronounced.
Either way, this over/under is all about the schedule. The Colts will play nine of its 16 games against teams that finished last year with a losing record. That’s a distinct recipe for success. The Colts may not be the best team in the NFL, but with Luck and that schedule, the over is the smartest play.
