It’s week 2 and after a surprising week for some quarterbacks, it could be back to reality.
Last week’s top scoring quarterbacks were Tom Brady with 27.62, Carson Palmer at 25.68, Marcus Mariota at 24.96, Alex Smith at 23.22 and Aaron Rodgers at 23.06.
Most fantasy football rosters had Rodgers and Brady starting, but Palmer, Mariota and Smith were likely left on the bench.
Here’s our best bets for who to start and who to sit for week 2 of the NFL season in fantasy football.
Start
Drew Brees vs. Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay’s defense is awful. For some reason, head coach Lovie Smith hasn’t adapted to 2015, and still believes in the cover 2.
Mariota torched the Buccaneers last week, and Brees wasn’t terrible in week 1. He did about as expected against a quality Arizona defense, scoring 16.50 points with 355 yards passing, with one touchdown and one interception.
The Bucs ranked fifth-worst last season in passing yards allowed per game last season, and if the first game was any indication, the defense hasn’t gotten any better.
New Orleans has opened as a 10-point favorite, so oddsmakers are expecting big numbers ouf of the Saints offense. You should expect the same and Brees should be one of the top starters this week in fantasy football.
Cam Newton
Sure, Newton doesn’t have any receivers to throw to in Carolina’s offense. But if the Texans can’t get to the quarterback, they struggle to defend the pass.
With the big-bodied Newton and a good running game to neutralize Houston’s front seven, Newton should have time to pass, which will allow him time to pick apart the Texans. Kansas City sliced through the Texans last week through the air, and Travis Kelce was the big recipient of the good fortune.
The Panthers have their own quality tight end in Greg Olsen, so watch for Newton and Olsen connecting on several passes.
Teddy Bridgewater
Did we watch the opening game with Minnesota and San Francisco? Yes, for the most part.
Bridgewater struggled mightily and looked like he allowed nerves to get the best of him. He was errant with his throws, but after a week to calm down and settle into his home turf, Bridgewater should come back and do well against Detroit.
The Lions showed last week that if they don’t get pressure (much like the Texans) their pass defense struggles. Phillip Rivers netted 404 yards passing, with his biggest work coming in the second half when Detroit couldn’t get to him.
Rivers was 21-of-23 in the second half and threw for 249 yards and two touchdowns. When Detroit got pressure in the first half, Rivers threw two interceptions on 14-of-19 passing.
Minnesota’s offensive line didn’t give us much hope in week 1. But we’re thinking the gameplan will be adjusted and the Lions will be kept at bay up front, allowing Bridgewater to have a bounce-back game.
Andrew Luck
We were down on Luck last week, and he turned in a performance that didn’t warrant taking him in the first round. He finished 11th among quarterbacks in points with 17.72 points. He threw for only 243 yards, despite attempting 49 passes.
But we’re not down on Luck this week. The first game was more about Buffalo having plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. And although the New York Jets have talent, this should be a nice opportunity for Luck to rebound from a disappointing effort in week 1.
Sure, the Jets only allowed 217 yards passing in week 1, but when starting quarterback Josh McCown was in the lineup for Cleveland, he was slicing through the defense. Then Johnny Manziel entered the game, and all the offensive momentum halted.
The Jets won’t face Johnny Football this week. Luck should put up big numbers on Monday night.
Sit
Marcus Mariota
Don’t take the bait. We know Mariota was one of the biggest highlights from week 1. And it would appear he faces another easy test against the Browns.
But don’t be fooled. The Browns can play defense against the pass. Where Cleveland struggles the most is against the run.
The Browns were the worst team against the run last season, and Jets running back Chris Ivory logged plenty of carries and rushed for 91 yards in week 1 against the Browns.
The Titans will likely go with the same approach on the ground against the Browns, limiting Mariota’s effectiveness through the air. Don’t hop on the hype train just yet. He may be a good play at some point this season, but not this week.
Phillip Rivers
We were a bit concerned in the first half last week when Rivers looked less-than-ordinary against a Lions defense that we didn’t perceive would be near as good as last year.
Then, Rivers almost went perfect in the second half, restoring fantasy football owners’ hope that Rivers could put up big numbers this year.
This week, though, is just a bad matchup. In five career games against the Bengals, Rivers is 2-3, with eight touchdowns compared to five interceptions. He also averages less than 300 yards per game against the Bengals.
Granted, last week it was only the Raiders that the Bengals destroyed, but the defense didn’t look like it has missed any steps.
Don’t take a chance on the road this week. Rivers will be a good play more weeks than not, but this matchup just doesn’t work.
Tom Brady
You saw what Buffalo did against Andrew Luck last week.
The Bills’ defense is for real. We don’t believe the offense will do what it did against the Colts defense, making this game more of a field position contest.
Head coach Rex Ryan has had success in the past against Brady, so to expect league-leading fantasy football stats this week from Brady would be foolish.
And although the Patriots offense looked unstoppable against the Steelers, that may have more to do with the Steelers defense, and less about New England’s offense. The offensive line is young, and the Bills should have plenty of opportunities to get to Brady.
When Brady feels pressure, he’s just not the same quarterback. Take a step back in your expectations this week with Brady.
Nick Foles
Foles was really good against one of the best defenses in the NFL last week, with 297 yards passing and one touchdown. He even ran for a score, but his two lost fumbles hurt his overall fantasy football point total at 18.98.
So you would think this week’s matchup with the Redskins would be one to exploit.
Not so fast.
The Redskins won’t do anything on offense, so you can’t depend on Foles having to throw it much if the Rams are trailing. The Rams will likely focus a bit more on the run, after watching Miami focus mostly on the pass last week, which yielded little success.
Against 34 attempts, the Redskins only allowed 182 yards passing last week. The Dolphins turned to the run a bit more in the second half, and that started to work better than the passing game.
That may hold true this week, and we’re worried about a letdown by the Rams after pulling off week 1’s biggest upset against Seattle.
This is another game where you shouldn’t overreact to week 1. Take a flier on Foles and wait until you see more consistency.
