The offseason has been kind to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this year and Rodgers is a near consensus top fantasy football quarterback and is now the favorite to win the Most Valuable Player award.
According to Oddsshark, Rodgers leads the pack at +350, just ahead of Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, Carolina quarterback Cam Newton and Denver linebacker Von Miller at +500. Despite the love for winning the MVP, Rodgers isn’t even a top-five option at finishing with the most passing yards in the NFL.
The favorite in that category goes to regular yardage collector New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees at +500. Brees has finished first or second every year since 2011 in passing yardage, so there’s a distinct reason why he’s the favorite once again.
Rodgers, who generally is a machine in fantasy because he doesn’t throw interceptions, actually only owns the sixth-best odds to finish with the most passing yards. Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers have better odds than the MVP favorite.
That shows how much passing yards doesn’t equal success. Brees hasn’t been the same quarterback of late, throwing interceptions and not being part of a winning team, despite piling up passing yards. Rivers, Manning and Ryan likely won’t compete in the MVP race, but have been factors in putting up the most passing yards because they’re on teams that fall behind early and often, and they’re part of an offense that is generally pass-first, run-second.
If you’re looking for a possible sleeper candidate in winning the passing yards category and MVP award by season’s end, take a look at Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck, who is going off at +1600 in the passing yards prop bet and +800 for MVP. During his breakout season in 2014, Luck finished third in passing yards. For some reason, everyone’s down on Luck in fantasy football and in prognosticating. His team wasn’t that great overall in 2014 and Luck put them on his back to the AFC Championship game.
I’m not counting last year against him. He was injured and will bounce back in a big way this season.
