With the NFL season finished, we’re turning that sad reality into our way too early look at the 2016 fantasy football draft.
In this edition of looking ahead to 2016, we’re eyeing five wide receivers who finished sixth through 10th in fantasy points in 2015.
6. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston, 220.10 points
Hype train: Just right
We’d love to say all aboard with Hopkins, but that quarterback situation in Houston has us leery.
Hopkins was a monster in the early portion of 2015, going for double-digits in eight of the first 10 games. That was partly powered by his quarterback being awful, allowing Hopkins to see double-digit targets each game.
As the season wore on, though, more receivers got into the action and Brian Hoyer’s inability to throw the ball downfield with much accuracy hurt Hopkins’ production.
Don’t get us wrong, we still love Hopkins and actually stole in late in the second round with a pick on our own fantasy football team. That’s about where he should be again next season, and you can’t go wrong with his production.
7. Doug Baldwin, Seattle, 190.90 points
Hype train: Hop off
Baldwin was a monster late in the season. He went for double-digits in five of his final six games, and three of those included point totals of 32.50, 21.40 and 26.20.
Will that production continue? Or was a he a touchdown-dependent receiver who can’t be trusted on a weekly basis with outings like that?
We’re siding with the latter.
Before his explosive five games, Baldwin recorded only two double-digit performances in fantasy, and wasn’t always the main target. Quarterback Russell Wilson likes to spread around the ball, making it difficult to emerge as a clear-cut No. 1 option.
His value will likely be far too high to risk a second or third round pick. Don’t expect him to find the endzone as much as he did in the last six games (11 times), putting his value below what many will expect in the preseason.
8. A.J. Green, Cincinnati, 187.70 points
Hype train: Just right
Don’t get too excited with Green. If you’re able to keep that mindset and let him come to you in the fantasy draft, you won’t reach.
Green is widely considered one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, but his fantasy production generally mirrors the back-end of the top-10. Entering 2015, he was ranked seventh, and we expect a similar ranking next season.
He’ll drive you nuts, with five or below fantasy-point performances, which he mustered four in 2015, but he also can pay big dividends, like when he rattled off four double-digit performances in five games from weeks 12 to 16.
If he’s your WR1, your team could be in far worse shape. However, if he’s your first overall pick, then you’ve reached and that won’t bode well for your future playoff chances.
9. Calvin Johnson, Detroit, 173.40 points
Hype train: Hop off
He might retire, so that automatically puts him in the Hop off category. Even if he wasn’t going to retire, though, we’d still go away from him.
Johnson was his regular self in 2015, putting up solid fantasy points, despite being on a bad team. The offense wasn’t great, but he still managed seven double-digit fantasy days.
Much like Green, though, he’ll drive you insane with poor performances. He managed four games of less than four points in 2015. That doesn’t cut it as a WR1.
We see Johnson as more of a WR2 anyway, but with him planning to retire, there’s no reason to waste a draft pick on him. We understand the notion that many may want to wait and see, even when the season starts.
Who are you kidding, though? You’ll drop him the first week you need someone to fill all your bye-week players. If he retires, let him sit on the waiver wire.
10. Eric Decker, New York Jets, 172.70 points
Hype train: Hop off
Does Decker deserve value as a WR1? No way.
We don’t care what he contributed this past season. He’s not even the best receiver on his team and we already expressed doubt how that player will do in the coming season.
Decker was possibly the most consistent wide receiver this season, going for double-digit points in nine of the final 10 games. Not once during that period did he eclipse 15 points.
In reality, Decker is exactly what you would want from a wide receiver. He may not have had those monster games, but he never tallied less than eight points in a single game this past year.
If we believed he could keep up that trend, we’d draft him in a heartbeat, and likely reach for him. However, with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the quarterback, we don’t see the Jets’ offense repeating their performance from 2015.
