It’s week 1 and already there are some match-ups that we love and hate for running backs.
Here is our list of four running backs to start and four running backs to sit in week 1 of the NFL.
Start
Chris Ivory vs. Cleveland
The New York Jets running back likely won’t be on the list very much this season, but this is just too good of an opportunity.
The Browns are one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. The run defense, on the other hand, is a different story. The Browns allowed the most rushing yards per game last season in the NFL and Ivory will get plenty of touches in this game, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the quarterback position.
Don’t expect many points in this contest, but Ivory will likely be a top five running back this week in touches. That’s a good sign for a very productive day.
Jonathan Stewart vs. Jacksonville
Stewart should have one of his better years in the NFL this year, thanks to not having to share the ball.
Carolina has been a two-headed rushing monster for the last few years, but this year, it’s Stewart’s main job. And with uncertainty at the wide receiver position, we expect plenty of touches for tight end Greg Olsen and Stewart.
It also helps that the Jaguars have a leaky rush defense. Jacksonville allowed 127.1 rushing yards per game last year and we expect the rush defense didn’t get much better in the offseason.
This is another game where the running back will have a high amount of touches, meaning there will be plenty of opportunities for points in week 1.
Matt Forte vs. Green Bay
Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler has to throw to someone, right?
Forte may be the best receiver for the Bears in week 1, especially with Alshon Jeffery possibly leaning against playing in week 1. Forte was a machine catching the ball last season, recording 102 receptions in 2014, good enough for the fourth-best mark in the NFL.
He also gained more than 1,000 yards last season on the ground. He should get plenty of action against the Packers, even if Green Bay storms out to a big lead.
Andre Ellington vs. New Orleans
The Arizona Cardinals running back has dealt with plenty of injury problems in his career and he may not be a durable addition to fantasy football rosters.
However, in week 1 against New Orleans, the match-up sets up well for a healthy Ellington.
The Saints weren’t good against the run last season, finishing in the bottom four in the NFL in rushing yards allowed. And while Ellington isn’t a favorite in the fantasy football community, he should be the main target out of the backfield for the Cardinals, which will likely provide plenty of targets for Ellington.
He’s not the best option for the remainder of the season, but in this snapshot, he should put up some points against the Saints.
Sit
C.J. Anderson vs. Baltimore
Anderson will be a quality addition to any fantasy football roster throughout the season. But week 1 isn’t a a great match-up for the Denver Broncos running back.
Baltimore struggled last season in the secondary. We’re assuming Denver quarterback Peyton Manning knows that information and the gameplan is structured accordingly.
A healthy Manning is Anderson’s worst nightmare. Watch for Denver to tone down its passing attack during the year to help Mannning stay healthy, but in this game, where a new offensive line will to get accustomed to a NFL defense known to be stingy against the run.
We’re running away from Anderson in this contest based on the match-up and Manning’s ability to still be one of the best in the game early in the season.
Joseph Randle/Darren McFadden vs. New York Giants
There’s no clear understanding of which running back will get the most carries. Randle will likely start, but that doesn’t mean anything.
Both running backs will get opportunities to record their share of touches, and we would encourage a start if one of them was the featured running back. Running the ball is most dependent on having a dominant offensive line, and the Cowboys can pave holes for anyone at the running back position.
This offense will likely be predicated on who has the hot hand. It could be Randle one game and it could McFadden in the other. If McFadden stays healthy, he could eventually be the main man, but his career has been riddled with injuries, so it’s hard to put much faith in him.
Stay away from Dallas for the time being unless someone emerges as the main running back.
Melvin Gordon vs. Detroit
We know the Detroit front seven will look different, but it still will feature a disruptive enough front seven that teams likely won’t attempt to challenge the Lions on the ground.
Instead, the Chargers will look to rely on their passing game, which if the San Diego offensive line keeps Phillip Rivers upright, there should be holes in the secondary to exploit.
Gordon also will have to split some work with Danny Woodhead, who will likely be the featured running back on third down. The Lions were a far better defensive team than offensive team last year, and although many weapons return on offense, Detroit should be better on the defensive end again.
Don’t expect Gordon to see many touches, and when he does, he may not go anywhere against the Lions’ front.
New England running backs vs. Pittsburgh
The Pittsburgh Steelers may have question marks on the defensive side of the ball, but in week 1 against New England, it won’t be the running game that thwarts any attempts for the Steelers to pick up the upset.
Starting running back LaGarrette Blount is serving a one-game suspension, and until he returns, the Patriots will go with their standard running back by committee approach. With Jonas Gray being waived, the Patriots will feature Brandon Bolden, Dion Lewis and James White as the featured backs.
Head coach Bill Belichick doesn’t care about getting a running back a specific amount of touches. He goes with the hot hand and there’s no way to predict who will have that hot hand during week 1.
Even if one of the running backs has a great game, it’s not worth being stuck with the running back who scores zero fantasy football points. Do yourself a favor and stay away from the Patriots backfield during week 1.
