The Survivor pool is open and within a few weeks, it’s likely half of participants will be out. Part of the reason is getting too cute with making picks.
My strategy is not to save teams, like others desire. The best strategy is to pick the best option for a victory each week. That sounds simple enough, but you’d be surprised.
Here’s my take on week 1 of the NFL season.
Best Bet
Seattle Seahawks
It’s difficult to give away the Seahawks this early in the season, but week 1 is sometimes a tricky one to navigate.
Seattle gives us one of the best NFC teams at home against a weak AFC team. That’s enough to book Seattle in week 1. The absence of Marshawn Lynch shouldn’t be too concerning for Seahawk backers. Thomas Rawls will step in just fine, with Christine Michael adding in a few carries here and there.
Seattle is all about Russell Wilson at this point and he’s done enough in the past year to prove that he can carry this offense on his back.
What also helps in this matchup is Miami’s inability to do much of anything against the run last season, in addition to having to throw and run the ball against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Without Lamar Miller and no receivers other than Jarvis Landry stepping up for Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins are in major trouble this season.
The Seahawks will be a popular pick in week 1 thanks to owning the biggest spread advantage of any team in the NFL this week. But don’t worry about picking the team everyone has. It’s all about surviving week 1.
Sleeper pick
Baltimore Ravens
If you’re looking to pull a fast one on other players in your Survivor pool, check out a team that I like to be far improved this season.
The Ravens are going to be better this season. They’re regularly a top-tier NFL team and they will return to that stature this year. Joe Flacco is still a good enough quarterback. The defense will be above-average. And the team will get back to their winning ways this year.
That will show right away with a victory against the Bills. Buffalo is a difficult case to examine this season. Injuries and suspensions have dominated the offseason for the Bills. Will that defense be as good as last season? I’m not so sure. Will Tyrod Taylor make a big leap this season? That’s also something I’m not sure will happen.
There’s too many question marks surrounding Buffalo this season. That’s why I like the Ravens to be victorious in week 1.
Be Careful
Philadelphia Eagles
It might be tempting to try to get an Eagles pick out of the way early in the season. How many times will Philadelphia actually be favored this season?
I’m guessing not that often.
However, as I’ve mentioned many times before, I’m concerned about a team shipping away their starting quarterback a week before the season is set to begin. Add into that problem that a rookie will take center stage and I’m frightened by the Eagles’ chances not only in week 1, but for the duration of the season.
The Eagles were one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season, and now all of sudden, that has to be the calling card this season. There wasn’t enough done in the offseason to prove to me that the defense would be able to carry this team to victories this season.
The Browns aren’t very good, but I can’t stake my survival on the Eagles winning this game. Bettors are backing off of the Eagles, too, sending this line from seven points in favor of the Eagles to four points. Stay away from this game in your Survival pool.
