We hate to break it to you, but the NFL has no rhyme or reason to it.
Look at the teams that were supposed to be the new darlings of the NFL in week 4. Oakland, Buffalo and Arizona were supposed to cruise to victories in week 4. All three of them were more than field goal favorites and all three of them lost straight up, with the Cardinals and Bills failing at home.
This is why the continued success of New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Seattle should receive more praise than it actually does. But with four weeks in the books, we’re looking at what teams have been the best and worst against the spread, and if bettors can continue riding those streaks.
Indianapolis Colts, 0-4 ATS (2-2 straight up)
You wouldn’t be breaking much of a sweat if you’ve gone against the Colts each week. Indianapolis is minus-8.8 points per game against the spread, second-worst to only the Miami Dolphins in that department.
Most of the Colts’ issues have resided with Andrew Luck’s turnover problems, and the inability for the defensive and offensive lines to get any movement up front.
Without Luck on Sunday, the Colts still won, but failed miserably to cover the almost 10-point spread.
Indianapolis has whiffed on the spread by a large amount each week, other than against Tennessee when Indianapolis briefly grabbed the cover in the fourth quarter before the Titans recaptured the cover.
We don’t anticipate the betting public to get the memo on the Colts. Because of past success, oddsmakers and the betting public will likely continue to drift more toward the Colts, making it beneficial to stay against the Colts. With a Thursday night game on the road against the Texans, this week’s chances to beat the spread don’t look good for the Colts. — Stick against the Colts ATS
Green Bay Packers, 4-0 ATS and straight up
There’s not much analysis needed with Green Bay. It’s the Aaron Rodgers show, and as long as the defense can keep the opposition away by at least a touchdown or more, then the Packers should continue to cover.
Look at the spreads already covered by the Packers. Green Bay has been nine, 6.5, seven and 3.5 point favorites this season. It’s covered all of them and by a decent margin. Green Bay has won by 5.1 points per game against the spread.
The spreads will continue to be in the touchdown or more range for the Packers. That’s not a problem for Green Bay.
Since 2013, the Packers are 19-8-1 against the spread as a favorite. We don’t anticipate the Packers to be much of anything other than a favorite this season, so that’s a strong number indicating future success. During that time period as a favorite, the Packers have won games by an average of 10 points per game.
The Packers will once again be heavy favorites this week with a 9.5-point number at home against St. Louis. — Stick with Green Bay ATS
Miami Dolphins, 1-3 ATS and straight up
The Miami Dolphins are the ultimate dumpster fire in the NFL.
We know there are teams currently without a win against the spread, but it’s been since week 1 that Miami has even been in the neighborhood of covering.
Since that week 1 cover against Washington, the Dolphins lost to Jacksonville and Buffalo as a favorite, and were lifeless in a two-touchdown defeat in London against the New York Jets as slight underdogs.
Now, entering its bye week, the Dolphins have fired head coach Joe Philbin, and maybe, just maybe, Miami will once again attempt to run the ball and stop the run. The Dolphins are last in rushing attempts with 16.2 attempts per game, and last against the run on defense.
Nothing is working, and changing your head coach in the middle of the season likely isn’t going to be the answer. The Dolphins were a trendy pick in the offseason to compete for an AFC East crown. It’s time to hop off that bandwagon. — Stick against Miami ATS
Atlanta Falcons, 4-0 ATS and straight up
The experts are already writing in 9-0 for the Falcons. It’s tough to argue with the upcoming schedule.
The next five games feature home games against Washington and Tampa Bay, and road games against New Orleans, Tennessee and San Francisco. But, this is still the NFL, and we’ve already discussed how there’s no rhyme or reason to what’s happening on a weekly basis.
The Falcons have generally flown under the radar, winning games they likely should, with home victories against Houston and an overrated Philadelphia team, and road wins against the New York Giants and the Tony Romo-less Cowboys. Against New York, Atlanta entered the fourth quarter facing a 10-point deficit.
So, let’s not show too much love for this schedule. With that being said, they won’t square off against any top-flight quarterbacks in 2015 until possibly Drew Brees, who we believe is in the twilight of his career.
But we believe the betting public will overreact right along with the experts. The Falcons are already eight-point favorites this week at home against Washington, which other than a loss against New York, has competed well on a week-to-week basis.
The number will be too bloated for the Falcons. We aren’t dismissing Atlanta as a perennial favorite, but going forward, the spread will be too weighted toward Atlanta to make them a good bet. — Go against Atlanta ATS
