This shouldn’t be news to anyone who has paid just a little bit of attention this week to the betting lines in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons’ odds have improved significantly since the opening line.
This movement likely has a lot to do with starting Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota being out with injury, but we also believe this has a little to do with a bad line set by oddsmakers. There’s no reason that the Falcons should have been a field goal favorite to begin the week.
We know Atlanta lost last Thursday to New Orleans, but that was a Thursday road game after an overtime victory against Washington.
It was ripe for an upset.
Now, with the low line and Mariota’s absence, the line has moved 3.5 points toward Atlanta, making the spread 6.5 points in favor of the Falcons. That’s the biggest line mover of the week. Here’s other lines that have moved this week in the NFL.
Cleveland at St. Louis, 2-point move
We’re not completely in sync with this movement, but we can understand why the betting public pounded the Rams. St. Louis is coming off a bye week and features a dynamic rushing attack with rookie Todd Gurley.
This opening line had St. Louis as a 4.5-point favorite, but has since moved two points, making the Rams 6.5-point favorites. The Browns’ defense has been atrocious all the way around, but it is especially bad against the run. Cleveland has the worst rush defense in the NFL and the Rams will run first and pass second.
We’re thinking the betting public believes the Browns offense won’t show up against a quality pass rush, but the Rams haven’t done much in the secondary to completely shut down Cleveland’s offense. We’re buying the Rams as winners, but we’re not sure this should be almost a touchdown.
Baltimore at Arizona, 2-point move
Baltimore’s season is over. The door was left slightly open going into last week, but after losing to San Francisco, the Ravens are officially finished.
This line opened as a touchdown, but has since climbed to nine points. Since this is the Monday night game, it could possibly reach double-digits. Arizona is returning home after back-to-back road games and has shown the ability to win big when it does win. Last week’s loss to Pittsburgh looks bad, but Arizona had several opportunities to score, but just didn’t have it.
That happens in the NFL on occasion, so we’re not giving too many marks against Arizona for last week’s performance. Baltimore brings nothing to the table and we’re wondering if it has quit. This is consecutive road games on the West Coast and that doesn’t bode well for a team that has no hope for postseason play.
Other line movers
New York Jets at New England (-8) (Opening line has moved 1.5 points in NY Jets direction)
Dallas at New York Giants (-3.5) (Opening line has moved 1.5 points in Dallas direction)
Houston at Miami (-5) (Opening line has moved 1.5 points in Miami direction)
