Inevitably, many of you will fall victim to the curse of the fantasy football busts.
For the most part, injuries play a major role in the biggest busts of the season, much like last year’s roller coaster ride of running back busts.
But injuries are almost (if you keep drafting Tony Romo expecting him not to be injured, then that’s on you) unpredictable. That’s why creating stellar depth on your roster and dominating the waiver wire are important factors in winning the fantasy football season.
Here’s three possible busts to watch out for when drafting in 2016.
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
Brees has been a consistent performer for the most part in fantasy football leagues for the past decade.
He plays in a system that throws the ball often and has a defense that regularly forces the offense to keep pressing the passing pedal.
But he’s not the same machine he once was, and at some point, Father Time is going to come knocking. He’s 37 years old and currently ranked fifth among quarterbacks on FantasyPros, which evaluates rankings from several fantasy platforms.
His touchdown production has gone down every year since 2011, and while last year he had a bit of a resurgence on efficiency (he threw only 11 interceptions), he’s due for a large turnover year. Since 2010, he’s thrown at least 17 interceptions three times. During those years, his quarterback rating has been below 100.
The weapons aren’t there like in the past and the NFC South is getting better. The quarterback position has too much depth to waste an early round pick on Brees. If you can get him later, he would be an option. But stay away from him during the early part of your draft.
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Welcome back to the fantasy football conversation, Doug.
He went on a sabbatical for a few years, rushing for less than 1,000 yards combined in 2013 and 2014. Last year, though, he offeredhope for better days ahead with 1,402 yards rushing and six touchdowns.
But I’m not ranking him as high as other fantasy football owners. He’s ranked at No. 9 among running backs on FantasyPros, with an average draft position of 19.
Based on last year’s production, that’s a steal.
But don’t expect that same Martin to show up in 2016. I refuse to forget his wildly inconsistent years in 2013 and 2014, and that offense is turning more into the Jameis Winston show, thus reducing his ability to register too many carries.
Also, with running backs, we must always be aware of longevity, and this is his fifth season, and he has carried the ball 868 times in his pro career. That’s a decent amount for a running back listed at only 5-feet-9-inches.
Injuries have stopped him before, and while I can’t predict them, I don’t trust him to stay healthy all year.
Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Jets
Much like Martin, last season was a nice welcome back party for Marshall.
He resurrected his career with 1,502 yards receiving and registered the most touchdowns of his career with 14. That was a nice little run last year, but don’t expect even close to the same production this season.
The Jets’ quarterback position is a mess, and even if Ryan Fitzpatrick comes back as quarterback, do we really expect him to have the same season as last year?
I’m not buying it, meaning Marshall will suffer greatly.
He’s currently ranked 11th among wide receivers with an ADP of 22. Last year, he was ranked more as a WR2 and in some cases a WR3.
He’s more of a WR2 for me this season, meaning you can wait awhile before grabbing him in the draft. However, at least with a few weeks before many fantasy drafts take place, it doesn’t appear that will be an option.
