There’s nothing quite like the week 1 Survivor Pool. Nobody truly knows what will happen. Bad teams can have one good week, while good teams may be off to a slow start.
We just don’t know, which makes this week one of the most nerve-wreaking times of the year. You don’t want to pony up your Survivor Pool entry fee only to be gone by the start of week 2. To help you avoid that fate, here’s my take on this week’s matchups.
Best Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers
I’ve gone back and forth on this pick for weeks. At first, I was siding with New England. The more I looked at that matchup, though, the more red flags I witnessed. New England will play without its safety valve Julian Edelman. The Patriots also will face one of the better pass rushes in the NFL, which could neutralize their passing game. And Andy Reid is no slouch when he has time to prepare.
I’m avoiding those red flags in week 1 and going with the tried and true strategy of being anti-Cleveland. Picking against the Browns has been a solid way to stay afloat in previous versions of the Survivor Pool. This year, though, I wouldn’t ride that train as often, but in week 1, it makes sense.
The Steelers and Browns are divisional opponents, meaning there won’t be any week 1 surprises. The Steelers have advantages in pretty much every level on offense and defense. The playmakers are more prevalent, the offensive line is dominant and the defense is young and improving on the Pittsburgh sideline. The Browns should be improved this season in a year where we’re seeing tanking before the season in the NFL. There are some nice pieces on Cleveland and it should put up more of a fight this season against the opposition.
But the Browns just don’t match up well against Pittsburgh. Cleveland’s defense is just too young and inexperienced to match up with Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense. It’s tough to lose Pittsburgh in week 1 as a Survivor Pool pick, but you’ll be around for week 2.
Good Bets
New England, Houston, Atlanta, Los Angeles Rams
This is an interesting week in that there are quite a few close spreads and many of the big favorites are road teams. Pittsburgh, New England and Atlanta own three of the four biggest spreads of the opening week and are on the road. That creates some challenges when picking in the Survivor Pool. For the most part, I like to back home teams.
But in New England and Atlanta’s case, the matchup sways too much in their favor. Despite the red flags, the Patriots should still win. It’s the opening game of week 1 where the Patriots will be honored as last year’s champions. Teams that open in that fashion don’t lose in the NFL. So if you take the Patriots, you’re probably going to be OK.
One of the games that is a little more off-the-wall in this group is the Rams. Bettors have swung the spread 6.5 points in the direction of the Rams, moving Los Angeles from a three-point underdog to a 3.5-point favorite. I’m surprised it wasn’t even more. Indianapolis could be one of the worst “good” teams in the NFL. Regularly a playoff contender, it is totally dependent on the quarterback position. Other teams don’t necessarily need an All-Pro quarterback to at least be competitive. That’s not the case for the Colts and that will show against a Los Angeles team that deserves more respect than offered by the experts. The Rams are superior on defense and the offense can’t possibly be as bad as last year. If you want to be bold, take the Rams.
Be Careful
Buffalo, Carolina
I think both teams will win, but I’m not banking my Survivor Pool future on it. The Bills may be facing the new Cleveland Browns (AKA the New York Jets), but Buffalo also is going all in on tanking. We don’t know if Tyrod Taylor is playing and other than LeSean McCoy, there’s not much on the offensive side of the ball that scares me.
If the Bills can’t move the ball and score points, then by default, the Jets will stay in the game. That could prove problematic for not only the Bills covering a ridiculous nine-point spread, but for winning outright. The Jets are awful, but the Bills aren’t much better.
The Panthers aren’t in the same boat as the Bills or the Jets, but I’m worried about a cross-country trip against a San Francisco team that has been pretty good in recent years in openers. I anticipate San Francisco to be better than many believe, too, so this should be closer than what is expected. I think the Panthers will win, but it’s not worth the risk in week 1.
