Week 2 went almost as I thought it would. Oakland dominated the New York Jets, sending me into week 3 and those possible land mines I discussed last week, were truly only possible land mines.
There were no shockers, but Buffalo, San Francisco and Indianapolis tried to make life tough on some Survivor Pool players.
This week offers another chance at a major slip-up, so here’s the week 3 Survivor Pool picks.
Teams Used: Pittsburgh, Oakland
Best Bet
New England Patriots
This doesn’t mean I’m completely sold on the Patriots so far this season. The wide receivers are non-existent thanks to a growing number of injuries and the defense is more than willing to give up plenty of yards.
But the Patriots make the most sense in making it out of week 3 and heading into the fourth week of the season. Let’s go ahead and forget that week 1 performance by New England. They were overconfident and not prepared to play a hungry Kansas City team. So I’ll give this week as the true home opener, without the attention that week 1 brought.
I also can’t ignore the glaring elephant in the room with Houston. The quarterback play is as non-existent as the New England wide receivers. Deshaun Watson is still a long ways away from being a competent and consistent starting quarterback in the league. He used his legs to beat Cincinnati last week in a game that turned back offense to the early days of the NFL.
He won’t have the same luck in week 3. Oddsmakers are pegging this as a blowout, with some books putting the Patriots as more than two-touchdown favorites. I can’t blame them for the points spread.
Houston coach Bill O’Brien has faced New England three times in the last two years, losing by a combined score of 88-22. Expect a similar result in week 3.
Good Bets
Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers
If I wasn’t so scared of Cincinnati coming with major motivation for a week 3 road matchup against the Packers, I wouldn’t have wasted the Patriots this early. The Packers are the better team. And I’m pretty sure they’ll defeat a Bengals team that I’ve been saying for the last two years isn’t the same one we saw in previous years. The offense is stagnant and the defense isn’t as good as we see on paper.
But motivation counts in the NFL and the Bengals will be desperate. And desperate teams sometimes do strange things in the NFL.
The Steelers make sense, too, but at some point this offense needs to get it going. Week 2 was the second straight week the Steelers didn’t look like the Steelers. Le’Veon Bell’s holdout likely didn’t help, but eventually, this team needs to show more life on that side of the ball. The Bears are in disarray and likely won’t put up enough fight to win this game outright.
Be Careful
Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers
I could be the only person on the planet that actually likes New York’s matchup this week. Miami missed week 1 and proceeded to go on the road to Los Angeles in week 2 to win. They ran the ball well and looked decent enough on offense. However, the defense looked a lot like last year, when it finished in the bottom-five in yards allowed. That can spell doom in these situations.
The Dolphins are not only in the midst of back-to-back road games, but these road games are on the opposite sides of the United States. And this is happening in their first two weeks of the season. The Jets are terrible, but something tells me that Miami won’t be ready to play. In the Yahoo $100,000 Survivor Pool contest, 18 percent of participants are picking the Dolphins, following an anti-Jets strategy that I believe we’ll see this season.
That strategy will likely provide solid results in the Survivor Pool this season, but I would avoid it this week. Despite what you saw in week 2, the Jets can still play a little defense. And if the Dolphins don’t bring their defense, this game could be too close for comfort.
The Panthers, on the other hand, fall in the same category as the Packers. It makes sense to believe Carolina will win, but New Orleans will be a desperate team playing a divisional game. Carolina hasn’t been good on offense this season, and if the Panthers can’t get into the end zone in week 3, this could easily go in the wrong direction. Carolina is a touchdown favorite, but I wouldn’t be that sure in week 3.
