The NFL is back. Now’s the time to wash that taste out of my mouth from last year’s hobble to the finish line, which ended in a .500 record, putting me at or above .500 for three consecutive years.
This year isn’t about finishing anywhere near .500. The early season is tough because there’s not much to go on, but I’ll offer up three underdogs and favorites each week that have caught my eye. Here’s my favorite three NFL underdogs that will cover the spread in week 1.
New York Jets (+9) at Buffalo Bills
The knee-jerk reaction to how bad the Jets will be this season is giving way to a completely unfair opening-week spread. Yes, the Jets are in tank-mode. But news flash — so are the Bills.
Buffalo is trading away players for draft picks before the season even starts. And please, while we’re at it, name an offensive player on the Bills’ roster other than LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor. It’s not easy to find any other playmakers. Defensively, this isn’t a team that has done much in recent years to warrant almost a double-digit spread in week 1 of the NFL season.
The only reason why this spread is so large is because of the ongoing national narrative surrounding how the Jets will be this season. They will be horrendous, but this team is still coming off a five-win season, with three of those five wins coming on the road. And the Jets beat the Bills twice in 2016, including the final game of the regular season.
The Jets offense is going to be bad, but so is Buffalo’s. The Jets are really thin in the secondary, but not horrible against the run on defense. Buffalo’s strength is to run the football, and the Jets will make that difficult. This should be a close game featuring two teams destined to compete for a high draft pick in 2018. The betting public is going overboard with the anti-Jets sentiment, so back New York. — Go Against The Chalk with New York
New York Giants (+3.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Speaking of overlooked New York teams, let’s go to the Sunday night tilt. New York is better than Dallas this season. And it will show right away in week 1.
Dak Prescott was horrendous against the Giants last year. He had two of his three worst QBR performances against the New York defense last year. Much of that has to do with New York’s ability to rush the passer, but also be elite in the secondary. Defensively, this isn’t even a close comparison. The Cowboys had difficulties generating a pass rush to help offset some deficiencies in the secondary. The Giants look poised to be one of the better defensive units in the NFC.
Overall for the 2016 season, New York limited opposing quarterbacks to a 75 QBR, while Dallas allowed the opposition to sit at 94.1.
This comes down to the Giants offense and all signs point to that unit being better. Eli Manning has more weapons, while I’m expecting a sophomore slump from Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. I know it’s on the road, but New York doesn’t mind going on the road and winning games. Manning has more weapons and has an elite defense to lean on. I can’t believe I’m getting the hook on the field goal. — Go Against The Chalk with New York
Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals
If you’re backing underdogs, you’re likely having to be a road warrior, But with defenses like the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens, I don’t mind.
Baltimore’s defense is as deep and talented as it’s been in years. I know preseason means very little, but the top-10 defense of years past barely allowed more than 200 yards per game of total offense in four preseason games, outdistancing the second-best team by about 30 yards per game.
I won’t get too worked up about it because it’s preseason, but even that’s impressive.
Every level is better for the Ravens, making me wonder if we’re trapped in the Cincinnati bubble of a few years ago when it was winning double-digit games. The Bengals have been pretty mediocre for the last few years and finally came back to earth last year. The offensive line has not been good, and I’m not holding my breath for vast improvements this year. The defense is missing its best player and Andy Dalton is once again under center.
There’s a little trepidation with Joe Flacco’s injury and how that will affect him. But he’s a pro who has enough experience that he doesn’t need an entire preseason to be prepared for the season. The Ravens will dominate defensively this year, setting up what should be another run to the playoffs. — Go Against The Chalk with Baltimore
