We’re more than a quarter of the way through the NFL and college football seasons, so we should have enough evidence to make decent observations about the staying power of teams.
In college football, the conference season is heating up, so it’s imperative to find out which teams do well with the October pressure, and which will fade before November begins.
In the NFL, the season is still young, but there’s been enough time to judge which teams should garner more or less hype.
Check out these teams and see if the trends so far this season against the spread will continue.
Minnesota Vikings, 4-0 ATS
The Vikings get no respect…other than in week 5 of this season. For two years, the Vikings have been as undervalued as any team in the NFL, until this week as almost a touchdown favorite against Houston.
Since 2014, no team has come even close to Minnesota’s ability to cover the spread. The Vikings are 28-9 ATS since 2014, generating an unbelievable 75 percent cover rate. The next-best team at covering the spread in the NFL is Cincinnati at 62.3 percent.
The obvious explanation is that Minnesota has been disrespected tremendously by oddsmakers and the betting public alike. Last year’s spreads were ridiculous on a weekly basis, and Minnesota responded with a 14-3 mark against the spread. And it’s not like it is doing all of the damage at home.
Since 2014, the Vikings are 14-4 ATS on the road, once again the best mark in the NFL since that time.
The same has been true this year, with Minnesota entering the season as barely a favorite over Tennessee to open the season, and then being a more than touchdown underdog in week 3 on the road to Carolina.
But will this domination last? I’m actually inclined to say no, based a lot on what’s happening this week. Minnesota is almost a touchdown favorite against a Houston team that can play defense at a level just below Minnesota. The Vikings should win double-digit games this season, but I believe oddsmakers and the betting public are starting to finally give Minnesota some credit.
That’s bad in the eyes of handicappers. The rest of the league is finally figuring out what I’ve known for the last two years. Minnesota can win games, wherever it plays. That realization will overinflate spreads, causing me to be cautious with Minnesota against the spread going forward. — Buck the Trend
Auburn Tigers, 4-1 ATS
I’ve been on the Auburn bandwagon since the season began and for good measure. Auburn is better this season and it will continue to show that improvement as the season progresses.
But when will the betting public catch on to the new-look Tigers?
Not until at least next season.
Bettors have been burned so bad by the Tigers in recent years that it will take far more than five games for spreads to adjust to necessary levels. Everyone thought Auburn was going to revolutionize the college football world, forcing spreads to be far too high for Auburn to ever cover.
That sent Auburn into a tailspin for bettors. After going 12-2 against the spread in 2013, the Tigers were a combined 8-18 ATS during the previous two seasons.
But this is a new season and so far the Tigers have responded to lesser expectations. Those expectations will remain buried behind many others in college football, allowing handicappers to exploit spreads involved with Auburn. — Stick with the Trend
Cleveland Browns, 1-3 ATS
There’s a select group of teams that hover toward the bottom of the NFL every year. There’s possibly no better team at being bad than the Cleveland Browns.
Cleveland owns one more win than Jacksonville, Tennessee and Tampa Bay since 2013, so naturally, it is a regular underdog on a weekly basis. But while it is one of the worst teams in the NFL straight up, that doesn’t mean they’re awful against the spread.
In fact, Cleveland is a middle-of-the-pack team against the spread each year, running up a 16-18-2 ATS mark since 2014. It’s all about perception. The betting public believes Cleveland is terrible. That may be true, but the Browns are still professionals. I just saw today a poll conducted in Ohio that more than 60 percent of respondents believed Ohio State could beat the Browns.
It’s ridiculous to believe any college team could come close to an NFL squad filled with professionals who were once all generally at least all-conference selections in college. But that’s what people believe when it comes to the Browns, and that’s something bettors have exploited during the years.
And this year could be more beneficial for bettors. The Browns are competing well on a weekly basis. Cleveland had a huge lead against Baltimore in week 2, blew a shot at winning in week 3 and had the week 4 game won, too, until turnovers derailed that victory in the fourth quarter.
Now they’re staring down a double-digit spread in week 5 as the home team against New England, which is featuring quarterback Tom Brady for the first time this season. I like any team that enters weeks as a double-digit underdog at home. The betting public won’t catch on to Cleveland’s ability to keep games close, meaning this trend of losing against the spread won’t last. — Buck the Trend
Oregon, 0-4-1 ATS
This is a tricky one. When everyone was declaring Oregon as this national powerhouse, regardless of who was in the head coaching position, I wasn’t buying it. I’m a Chip Kelly apologist, but there’s no denying the influence he had on the Ducks football program.
I anticipated the program to take a step back once Kelly’s recruits filtered through and out, and that’s pretty much what has happened. But the betting public still hasn’t gotten accustomed to the new Oregon. With Kelly’s Oregon, there was rarely a spread too high to back. It was similar to the glory days of Boise State, when oddsmakers would set the number at 40 and you’d still pick Boise State. Then you’d celebrate when they’d win by 60.
The spreads have decreased a bit for the Ducks, but we’re still getting Oregon as favorites when it shouldn’t be. Last week was a perfect example. Oregon was getting the benefit of the doubt as a slight favorite, but in reality, that game should have easily been tilted in Washington State’s favor. The Cougars play Oregon tough and were playing at home.
But people just haven’t gotten away from Oregon as an unstoppable force in the Pac-12…until this week.
We finally have the Ducks at a number in which they should be this week against Washington. The Ducks are more than a touchdown underdog at home (who would have thought that was possible a few years ago?) Those are the numbers that are more in line about who Oregon is nowadays.
Will the betting public and oddsmakers continue to put Oregon in the spot where it belongs. I’m skeptical, so I’m sticking with the recent inability to cover spreads. — Stick with the Trend
