Betting the favorite has always been the classic underdog story.
This year in the NFL, that underdog story didn’t work out well for the vast majority of bettors.
Favorites were 116-137-10 against the spread this season, giving favorites a 44 percent cover rate. That’s the worst rate since a 43 percent mark for favorites in 2006.
This is a problem for the majority of gamblers, because despite constant reminders that favorites don’t cover near as often as underdogs, especially in the NFL, the betting public sides with favorites.
According to research by Sportsbook.com from 2009 to 2012, 65 percent of all bets in the NFL were placed on the favorite. That’s why Las Vegas still features several opportunities to gamble on sports.
Since that year in 2006 when underdogs were more than 16 percentage points more likely to cover than favorites, it’s been a never-ending story for the favorites, except for one magical year in 2013.
The betting public finally found their winning formula in 2013, when favorites outdistanced underdogs by 18 games for the duration of the NFL season, giving the perceived better team a cover rate of 52 percent.
During that timespan, favorites have been close to at least being even to the underdogs. Three different times, in 2011, 2010 and 2008, the favorites came within one game of tying the underdogs.
It’s not a major discrepancy, but it’s enough of a full-proof plan that your betting strategy for next season should feature a long, hard look at the underdog. That’s especially true when the line is in the double-digit range. According to research by Sportingcharts, double-digit favorites covered a little more than 40 percent of the time from 1978 to 2012, with the number shrinking recently.
Betting only underdogs wouldn’t give you much action, though, so there’s still enough reason to mix in a favorite or two. Since 2006, there’s been no better team than the Green Bay Packers at being the favorite.
The Packers cover at 61 percent of the time as a favorite, the only team since that time to go over the 60 percent threshold. Only 10 teams since 2006 own cover rates of more than 50 percent. There aren’t many surprises, and among those 10, we generally like the Seahawks and Patriots as solid options as favorites.
They consistently are favorites and still finish the season with an above-.500 record against the spread.
In terms of quality underdogs, the Patriots are tops among NFL teams. However, that 69-percent cover rate is a bit misleading, since the Patriots have only been underdogs 25 times since 2006. When they are underdogs, trust New England.
Teams that have been underdogs often since 2006 with quality cover rates include Arizona at 58.5 percent and Cincinnati at 59.2 percent.
Lately, those teams have been more likely to be favorites than underdogs, so teams like Minnesota, which is 23-10 against the spread since 2013 as an underdog, and San Diego, which is 18-12-1 ATS since that time as an underdog, have been quality options as of late.
Don’t expect the Vikings to continue to be underdogs throughout the 2016 season, while the Chargers will once again man that role again this year.
It’s not a guarantee each week, but don’t lose sight of the power of the underdog in the 2016 season.
