After a horrendous day in week 8, we battled back in week 9 with a more respectable number. And if it wasn’t for picking the Minnesota game earlier in the week, it would have been even better, since the line moved heavily in St. Louis’ direction.
Week 10 gives us a few more games to watch, since less teams have byes. We’ll try to keep up the winning streak as the season beings to wind down.
Last week: 3-1-1 ATS
Season: 26-17-2 ATS
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is coming off a bye, so that’s likely the reason for the almost touchdown spread.
But we’re not buying it.
The Jaguars don’t have a very good record, but they haven’t been that bad. Three of the six losses have been by a touchdown or less. The offense is making progress and looked good last week against a top-tier defensive team in the New York Jets.
The game before, the Jaguars did well against another quality defensive team, the Buffalo Bills. That’s why we’re liking Jacksonville this week against Baltimore.
The Ravens have been atrocious on the defensive side of the ball and will likely allow Jacksonville to move the ball up and down the field. Jacksonville also can stop the run, which should force Baltimore into being one-dimensional. If Joe Flacco, without many healthy options at the wide receiver position, is the main source of offense, the Ravens will have a tough time getting out of this game with a win. — Go against the chalk with Jacksonville
Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We understand that we’ve completely sold off the Cowboys. Nobody likes Dallas anymore and there’s plenty of reason to think that way.
The Cowboys haven’t won a game since Tony Romo’s injury and it’s not looking good for Dallas to make a comeback when he returns. But let’s take a closer look at those losses.
Other than a loss to New England, the Cowboys have been competitive, losing by a touchdown or less in four of six games. And in the two road games, where we’ve seen Dallas play better during the previous few seasons, the two losses came on an overtime touchdown and a kick return late in the fourth quarter.
Dallas has talent. That won’t be a problem and with the way Matt Cassel played last week, we’re confident he can move the ball against Tampa Bay. The Cowboys have had tough luck lately, facing five of six opponents currently at .500 or better.
The Buccaneers are by far the worst team the Cowboys have played recently, so we’re giving the edge to Dallas. — Go against the chalk with Dallas
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-7)
The Chiefs are playing better, but we’re not sold yet.
Kansas City’s recent two-game winning streak has been against a Pittsburgh team without Ben Roethlisberger and the Detroit Lions. That’s not exactly a glowing recommendation for the Chiefs being a different team.
Kansas City still will struggle in its passing game and that’s a bad sign against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
The Broncos have shown throughout this season to confuse quarterbacks and we anticipate that will be a similar outcome this week against the Chiefs.
Denver has just too much talent on defense to allow Kansas City to run the ball consistently on its defense. We anticipate Denver to make the Chiefs into a one-dimensional offense, and we’re not worried about the Chiefs passing game.
We’re a little worried about Peyton Manning, but this game should be a motivator for him with multiple records on the line. Go with Peyton this week and forget about last week. — Go chalk with Denver
Carolina at Tennessee (+6)
We’re not going crazy about last week’s win by Tennessee. That game was ripe for an upset with the Titans switching coaches and New Orleans being New Orleans. We’ve seen this several times in the last few years with the Saints. One week, New Orleans looks unstoppable.
The next, it’s a different story.
So, this pick isn’t about the Titans. It has more to do with Carolina. It seems the Panthers have been in big game after big game. This is the first time the Panthers haven’t been in a marquee matchup since Oct. 4. There’s bound to be a letdown this week with Carolina coming off its fourth straight primetime victory.
Now that experts are starting to take notice of the Panthers, we’re expecting them to play down to their competition. There’s still a lack of weapons for the Panthers and Cam Newton can only do so much. And with Marcus Mariota at quarterback, we like the Titans’ offense. — Go against the chalk with Tennessee
New England Patriots (-7.5) at New York Giants
There’s no better team at beating big spreads than the New England Patriots.
That’s why we’re a little confused that the Patriots are barely more than a touchdown favorite.
New York’s pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The offense is good, but we can’t trust the Giants against New England’s solid defense. We’ve seen Eli Manning against quality defenses before. In those games, he isn’t turning in Pro Bowl statistics.
Instead, he reverts to bad Eli, and we’re anticipating that will happen once again Sunday.
We don’t like the matchup in this game, especially with the Giants’ poor defense against New England’s unstoppable offense. — Go chalk with New England
