Not surprisingly, teams that beat their preseason expectations were money against the spread.
Minnesota was monsters against the spread this season, going 14-3 against the spread, showcasing that oddsmakers never caught up to the Vikings. What’s even more impressive about that record is that Minnesota began the season with a loss straight up and against the spread.
From there, in the next 16 games (including the cover against Seattle in the playoffs), the Vikings only lost two more games against the spread. The Vikings’ margin of victory was only 3.6 points, which ranked 10th overall, but it beat the spread by more than four points.
The Vikings were favorites in nine games and underdogs eight times, with a 7-1 record ATS as an underdog. Minnesota did the majority of its cover work on the road, going 7-1 ATS on the road.
That road number wasn’t as good as the top team in the NFL, though. Cincinnati went undefeated on the road this season against the spread, with a plus-8.9 margin of victory against the spread. The Bengals were second overall in cover percentage, outdistancing third place by 10 percent at 12-3-2 ATS.
Because much of the spread is based on preseason expectations, it’s no wonder that oddsmakers had difficulty adjusting to these two teams. Minnesota and Cincinnati began the year with over/unders set at 7.5 and 8.5. Other teams that finished with double-digits in wins against the spread were Carolina at 12-5 and Green Bay at 11-7.
While those teams had success against the spread, Dallas and Tennessee were the worst against the spread in the NFL. Both teams were 4-11-1 against the spread. The Titans were expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL with an over/under set at 5.5, while the Cowboys were ravaged by injury en route to missing their expectations of 9.5 wins by a big amount.
Other teams under 40 percent cover rate were Miami, Baltimore, Atlanta and Cleveland.
For bettors looking for an advantage next season, it shouldn’t have come as a surprise that the top and bottom featured Minnesota, Cincinnati and Tennessee. Since 2013, the Vikings and Bengals are Nos. 1 and 2 against the spread, while the Titans are the worst team against the number at 13-31-4.
