Only one game remains in the 2015 NFL season, so we’re turning that sad reality into our way too early look at the 2016 fantasy football draft.
In this edition of looking ahead to 2016, we’re looking at the quarterbacks who finished in the top-five this past season, and will judge how well they’ll finish next year compared to their stats this past season.
1. Cam Newton, Carolina, 389.08 points
Hype train: Just right
The hype will be at a fever pitch for Newton going into next year’s fantasy season. Newton was by far not only the best quarterback, but the best fantasy football player in 2015, so his value will be a first-round grade.
And we can’t argue with that sentiment.
Now, the biggest issue is that his track record isn’t great on delivering high fantasy totals. That’s one of the biggest reasons his average draft position this season was 84th.
But we believe Newton can live up to the hype. And his schedule should be favorable next season. The Panthers will face five teams that ranked in the bottom 11 in total defense, giving way to an already explosive offense.
Newton showed this season that he can put up big points without stars at the wide receiver position. And next season, he’ll welcome back Kelvin Benjamin.
He should be the most logical choice as the top quarterback in next season’s draft.
2. Tom Brady, New England, 343.70
Hype train: Hop off
We’re not discounting Brady’s career. But eventually he’ll have to slow down, which was evident as the season progressed.
We know that his offensive line was in shambles and his receiving corps was a wreck, but what team didn’t have injury issues? Brady did what many players who are older do.
He regressed.
In his last four games, he didn’t register more than 20 points. In fact, from week 9 to the final game, he went over 20 points only twice. To contrast that from the beginning of the season, he didn’t register less than 20 points until week 9.
New England has a difficult time running the football, so we’d like to think the front office will address those concerns in the offseason. That means some of the weight will be lifted off Brady’s shoulders, limiting his opportunities at fantasy points.
His ADP of 58, ranking him as the seventh-best quarterback this past season, would likely be a correct grade for the upcoming season. However, we believe fantasy football owners will jump on him early next season.
3. Russell Wilson, Seattle, 336.26
Hype train: Just right
What started out as a rough year turned into a solid fantasy football campaign for Wilson.
He closed with six of seven games with more than 20 points, which helped catapult him over other quarterbacks in the final weeks. There will be hype for next season, and if that hype comes to fruition, it will have to come with a better offensive line.
We saw improvements toward the end of the season, but at times, like against St. Louis, Minnesota and Carolina, that unit was exposed. Wilson can’t run for his life in every game, but if there is some stability up front, he can get fantasy points with his legs and arm, which is a deadly combination.
The Seahawks should come out with a better mindset next season and be more prepared. At times this season, it seemed like the team was simply going through the motions. The hunger should return next season and Wilson should reap the benefits.
Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that Marshawn Lynch is expected to return.
4. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville, 316.12
Hype train: Hop off
People are going to salivate over Bortles in the coming year, expecting him to be a top-seven fantasy option.
That’s not going to happen in 2016.
That defense was atrocious toward the end of the season, allowing Bortles to pile up points. He went for more than 20 points in each game from weeks 12 to 16, while his defense allowed less than 30 points only twice.
That can’t possibly happen next season as the Jaguars will have to fix some things on the defensive side of the ball. When the defense was average, Bortles was barely registering more than 20 points.
The Jaguars employ too much of a vertical passing game for us to trust Bortles on a consistent basis. He was too touchdown dependent with 35 touchdowns, putting him second among quarterbacks, while throwing 18 interceptions.
We’re seeing too many signs toward regression for next year to trust him on our fantasy roster in 2016.
5. Carson Palmer, 309.24
Hype train: Hop off
After the NFC Championship game, that hype may disappear for next season.
Palmer was an ultimate pick-up this season, with an ADP of 145 and finishing fifth among quarterbacks in points. He was ranked as the 18th-best quarterback in the preseason.
His ranking will be higher next year, and deservedly so, but his past injury issues still have us leery to move forward on Palmer. He was visibly shaken in the two playoff games and that may take a toll on him in the offseason.
Combine that with a high likelihood of injuries with being another year older, and that preseason ranking will likely be too high. His weapons are aging and the Cardinals will have to take a hard look in the mirror at getting younger to keep up with their dynamic defense.
