When the ball doesn’t bounce your way, it just doesn’t go your way.
That was my week in week 9 in the NFL Best Bets. I lost a game and tied a game by a combined 1/2 point. That’s OK, because I still have a comfortable record above .500.
This week is an unusual week in the handicapping NFL handicapping world. Ten of the 13 games on Sunday and Monday feature spreads of a field goal or less. This week is all about picking winners, so just ignore the numbers…unless, of course, you’re picking those games with spreads of more than a field goal.
Here’s the week 10 NFL best bets.
Last Week: 1-4-1 ATS
Overall: 28-23-3 ATS
Chicago (-1) at Tampa Bay
The betting public has swung this spread three points since the opening line put the Buccaneers as the favorite. And the betting public is right.
I anticipated the Bears to be better this season. But in the beginning, it wasn’t looking so promising. Injuries were piling up and the quarterback play was hindering the offense.
Now, though, Chicago is getting healthier and that’s making a difference on both sides of the ball. The defense is a top-half defense in rushing and passing defense, and Jordan Howard has been a top-tier running back in three of the past five games.
Jay Cutler is good enough that he can win games. The biggest knock against him is that he can’t elevate a team to a championship. Chicago isn’t good enough to be a championship team, but the offense shouldn’t be stagnant against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom-10 of the NFL.
Chicago is actually a solid team. Sometimes NFL teams improve, while others go on a downward trend during the season. The Bears on the upswing, while Tampa Bay is trending down. — Go Chalk with Chicago
Minnesota (+3) at Washington
Here’s a situation where I believe the betting public has it wrong.
We’re all giving up on Minnesota. That’s fine with me. I’ll let everyone run away, while this defense continues to be one of the best in the NFL. The team still owns the third-best total defense in terms of yardage, limiting teams to less than 300 yards per game.
Washington, meanwhile, is a bottom-10 defense. But it does employ a top-five overall offense.
This matchup is all about what you prefer on a weekly basis, especially since Minnesota’s offense is struggling so much. For me, though, I see Kirk Cousins as a quarterback who has to complete a multitude of passes for success. He’s not going to drive the ball down the field.
This offense requires long drives and Washington has the sixth-highest time of possession in the NFL. Those long drives are aided by a completion percentage that is among the league’s best at fifth-highest. However, the Vikings are among the league’s best at limiting that completion percentage, allowing opposing teams to complete only 57 percent of passes, a full 10 percent lower than Washington’s completion percentage per game.
This is all about preference. I’ll take my chances with Minnesota’s elite defense. — Go Against the Chalk with Minnesota
Kansas City at Carolina (-3)
Carolina absolutely screwed me over last week, allowing Los Angeles to convert a fourth-down touchdown with a minute remaining, giving me a push. But I’m not going to let that interfere with my love for this game.
Carolina is the scariest team in the NFL. They have their backs against the wall each week because of the hole they dug earlier this season. And they still have pretty much the same talent left over from last year’s Super Bowl.
Carolina was underperforming tremendously earlier this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. However, lately, that defense appears to trending in the right direction.
Since losing to Tampa Bay on Monday night on Oct. 10, the Panthers just aren’t giving up anything on the ground. During that loss, Jacquizz Rodgers gained more than 100 yards. Since that time, no one has gained more than 51 yards on the ground.
And while the passing defense isn’t anything to brag about, most of the yardage in the last two weeks has been in desperation, with opposing teams attempting to throw themselves back into the game.
The Chiefs need to run the ball to be successful on offense. Carolina has been shutting down teams for the last month on the ground. The Panthers should be feared every week and this week is no different. The Chiefs have had a nice run, but Carolina’s defense, mixed with an offense capable of scoring big, will be too much to handle. — Go Chalk with Carolina
Bonus Bets
Atlanta at Philadelphia (+1.5) — The betting public is all over Atlanta, moving the Falcons from an underdog to a favorite. I’m not behind them on that. The Eagles are better than what they’ve shown lately. Atlanta is on back-to-back road games with a defense that ranks in the bottom-five in the NFL. That, along with Philadelphia’s ability to stop the pass, ranking in the top-10 in that category, will be the difference. — Go Against the Chalk with Philadelphia
Denver (+3) at New Orleans — As you can tell, I like defense against offense. New Orleans is horrendous on the defensive side of the ball, while Denver is bad on the offensive side of the ball. However, I think Denver can do more on offense than New Orleans can do on defense. Expect some more points out of Denver and more production from its quarterback in week 10. — Go Against the Chalk with Denver
Miami at San Diego (-4) — San Diego is good. They’ve been good since the start, but now they’re learning how to finish games. San Diego owns a top-10 rushing defense and can run the ball much better than many expected this season. Miami can’t stop the run. The Chargers should have a much better record this season. They don’t, but they’ll show why they should with a big win at home against the Dolphins. — Go Chalk with San Diego
