Minnesota was once almost a guarantee in picking against the spread.
In the last few weeks, though, the Vikings have been a guarantee, only in the opposite direction. Minnesota started off the season hot against the spread, but with an offense in shambles and a defense that isn’t playing at an elite level, the Vikings haven’t covered a spread since its bye in week 6.
I’ve built my above .500 mark against the spread in the last two years mostly on the back of the Vikings’ ability to cover a spread. So with them in shambles, I’ve been a little out of sorts lately.
I’m fading the Vikings for a few weeks, until we see them either keep sliding downward or return to their winning ways.
Here’s the week 11 NFL best bets.
Last Week: 2-4 ATS
Overall: 30-27-3 ATS
Tennessee (+2.5) at Indianapolis
This is a matter of revenge for Tennessee.
The first meeting this season was supposed to be a coming out party for the Titans. Instead, the Colts won again, which has been a regular storyline for the Titans.
But even if Tennessee is an underdog, it’s the better team. Since week 4, Tennessee is 4-2, with the only two losses coming to Indianapolis and at San Diego, a game in which turnovers derailed an upset bid.
The Titans can run the ball and with a healthier secondary, can stop the pass. Even with a depleted secondary, the Titans still have limited opposing quarterbacks to QBRs of 90, a top-half number for pass defenses in the NFL.
But what’s even more exciting, is the offense is becoming a top-flight offense in the NFL. The team has poured in four touchdowns or more in five of the last six games. And in two of the last three games, Tennessee has jumped out to such a large early lead, the game was basically over by halftime.
There’s something missing with Indianapolis and it’s not getting better. The offensive line is still troublesome and the offense just doesn’t move like it should. Tennessee is getting better and this game is an opportunity to jump that next hurdle. — Go Against The Chalk with Tennessee
Baltimore (+7.5) at Dallas
Dallas is really good. I was all over Dallas last year, but haven’t really turned my focus on the Cowboys…until this week.
The Cowboys have been on a weekly tour to tell the world that they’re for real. From their week 5 game against Cincinnati to last week’s victory against Pittsburgh, the Cowboys were undefeated, all the while entering three of those five games as underdogs.
Now that the nation believes, I’m turning the other direction.
My favorite team to the start the year was Baltimore. I believed the Ravens would be better this season, and I was slightly right in the early going. They weren’t much better early on, but ever since I started to fade Baltimore, it has quietly become a much better team.
The Ravens are quietly on a two-game winning streak, where they’re showcasing the best total defense in the NFL. No team stops the run better than Baltimore and only four teams stop the pass better than them.
No one is talking about Baltimore either. And that’s exactly where they want to be in a game where they square off against a bottom-10 pass defense.
Dallas has done a lot of “I’ll prove you wrong,” in recent weeks. That takes a lot of energy. With a Thanksgiving game ahead of them on Thursday, this game may not be as high of a priority as some of those “prove it” games in recent weeks. Dallas sleepwalks and the Ravens make this much closer than everyone thinks. — Go Against The Chalk with Baltimore
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Detroit
This is a game that Detroit loses.
The Lions are not a high-quality favorite. During the Jim Caldwell era, Detroit is under .500 in covering and has a margin of victory in those games of a little more than five points.
That’s not dissimilar to what’s happened this season. Detroit hasn’t beaten any team by more than a touchdown. In fact, the Lions haven’t played a game decided by more than a touchdown.
That obviously works in Jacksonville’s favor. What also helps is that Detroit is the worst team in the NFL against opposing quarterbacks. No team is worse in QBR or completion rate, which Detroit is allowing quarterbacks to complete almost 75 percent of passes against them.
Blake Bortles isn’t good, but he’s at least competent. There’s actual weapons on Jacksonville’s roster, and since a coaching change a few weeks ago, the Jaguars have been more competitive. Detroit has been living a lie this season as a top team. That will end in week 11, when the Jaguars expose this defense as being phony. — Go Against The Chalk with Jacksonville
Bonus Bets
Buffalo (+2.5) at Cincinnati — Buffalo runs the ball better than about any team in the NFL. Cincinnati continues to show it can’t stop the run. Without a top-tier defense, Cincinnati is having difficulties winning games. That will continue as Buffalo is one of the best teams in the NFL with its back against the wall. — Go Against The Chalk with Buffalo
Houston at Oakland (-5.5) — Oakland’s defense is getting better and it will show that in week 11. Houston can’t beat the top-tier teams and Oakland is cementing itself as one of those teams. Derek Carr should be able to move the ball against Houston and this one won’t be close. — Go Chalk with Oakland
Tampa Bay (+7.5) at Kansas City — Kansas City is winning with smoke and mirrors. The defense isn’t as good as many people perceive and Tampa Bay will be able to run the ball at will. The Buccaneers are a tough team to gauge, but the Chiefs just don’t do anything elite to make me want to give up seven points against a Tampa Bay that has been good in spurts this season. — Go Against The Chalk with Tampa Bay
