Will this NFL season ever end? It was another underwater experience for me in week 10, with a dubious 0-3 mark with my underdogs and 1-5 ATS mark for the week.
I’ve never been a big proponent for watching the lines on November college basketball games, but I’m beginning to teeter toward that position. Did you see Iowa State as a 13-point favorite against Milwaukee? That was ripe for the taking.
OK, enough about college basketball for the moment. It’s time to get out from under this cloud of awfulness. Here’s the week 11 NFL picks featuring the three best underdogs that will cover the spread.
Underdogs: 12-17-1 ATS
Overall: 20-35-1 ATS
Baltimore at Green Bay (+2)
Everybody was backing off the Packers in week 10, making Chicago more than a field-goal favorite. Looking back, that was a major reach.
The Packers aren’t as bad as they looked in that week 9 Monday night loss to Detroit. The offense can still move the ball at a decent rate, which should be enough to cover the spread at home.
Green Bay is going to move the ball better than Baltimore. The Ravens have shown time and time again that they can’t move the ball against even subpar defenses. And the Packers definitely have a subpar defense.
And while Baltimore has a stingy defense, it is inconsistent against the run. With Aaron Rodgers on the shelf, the Packers have run the ball better in recent weeks. Don’t buy into the rhetoric that Green Bay is dead. This team still has enough to win this game and survive another week without Rodgers. — Go Against The Chalk with Green Bay
New England at Oakland (+7)
This spread is just too much in a game that features two somewhat similar teams. New England is the better team, but the Raiders have a solid offense and a leaky defense.
That sounds an awful lot like the Patriots.
Both teams are similar in yards per play on offense and on defense. The Raiders have enough talent on offense to keep up with the Patriots, and should be able to rush the passer enough to disrupt Tom Brady and that potent offense.
The Raiders won’t stop the Patriots, but they can slow them down enough to keep this within one score. The Patriots are going on back-to-back road trips, so keep that in mind when betting this game. — Go Against The Chalk with Oakland
Tampa Bay (+1) at Miami
Tampa Bay’s defense is starting to show what we believed they would be during the first part of the season. Now it’s time for that offense to catch up.
This game features two disappointing teams with two different trajectories. Miami’s stellar defense is fading, while the Buccaneers once potent offense is hitting major roadblocks.
The main reason why I like Tampa Bay in this game though is about trust. I trust that Bucs defense to keep the Dolphins from moving the chains and the offense should get back on track with Ryan Fitzpatrick more comfortable in the quarterback position.
Tampa Bay’s defense is the best unit on this field, so I’ll go with the Bucs in another low-scoring affair. — Go Against the Chalk with Tampa Bay
