The NFL hasn’t seen this many favorites do well since 2013. Generally, the rule of thumb in the NFL is to back the underdog. That has worked for the most part historically, and especially in the last two seasons.
However, this year, much like 2013, favorites are paying dividends. Thirteen teams are above .500 as favorites. During the last two seasons, 15 teams combined were above .500 as favorites.
So it’s not always about the underdogs in the NFL. Sometimes you have to go with favorites, and if you practice this strategy this season in the NFL, the best bets are Houston, Indianapolis and Dallas, a combined 11-3 against the spread this season.
Favorites are occasionally my kryptonite, but I’ll attempt to keep that in mind in the week 13 NFL best bets.
Last Week: 4-2 ATS
Overall: 37-32-3 ATS
Miami (+3.5) at Baltimore
It’s time to start paying more attention to Miami. Pretty much nobody is talking about Miami, but in case you haven’t noticed, they haven’t lost since Oct. 9.
And during this six-game winning streak, the wins haven’t only come against the sisters of the poor. The Dolphins have two road victories, one at San Diego, and victories against Buffalo and Pittsburgh. They’ve been able to look like a new team thanks to a different offensive mindset and renewed interest in stopping the opposition’s passing game.
They own a top-10 pass defense and rush the passer better than you think. They also have turned running back Jay Ajayi into a fantasy stud.
What’s impressed me the most, though, is that the team is taking on chameleon-type approach to offense. It hasn’t only been the improved rushing attack. Did you watch that victory at San Diego a few weeks ago? San Diego’s tough rushing defense stuffed Ajayi, forcing Ryan Tannehill to throw the ball. The same was the case in week 12 against San Francisco.
In both instances, Tannehill actually came through, making me extremely confident heading into this week’s game against Baltimore. Baltimore owns the league’s best rushing defense, but they’ve been exposed at times through the air. Offensively, they’re also inept, which is a problem, considering they’re going to have to score some points to win this game.
Baltimore’s offense is a liability and it will show once again in week 13. — Go Against The Chalk with Miami
Detroit (+5.5) at New Orleans
This has to be a slap in Detroit’s face.
To be more than a field goal underdog against New Orleans has to stir up some emotions in Detroit. The Lions are leading the NFC North. They’ve won six of the last seven games. And they’re one of the best offensive teams in the NFL.
And they’re facing one of the worst defense in the NFL.
So why again are the Saints almost a touchdown favorite? I’m assuming it has to do with the betting public’s insatiable appetite for knee-jerk reactions. New Orleans destroyed Los Angeles at home in week 12 and looked unstoppable on offense.
But that unstoppable offense is 3-3 in the last six games, with wins against Seattle, Los Angeles and San Francisco. Two of those teams, the Rams and 49ers, have a combined record of 5-17.
Detroit has an ability to play up and down to its competition and the defense is playing better in recent weeks. The Lions play close games each week, so there’s no reason this should be any different. The Saints own the sixth-worst pass defense in the NFL, while Detroit is creeping closer to a top-10 pass defense, ranking 13th against the pass.
This game will be close and I believe Detroit will take offense to the lack of respect. — Go Against The Chalk with Detroit
Indianapolis (-1) at New York Jets
I’ve been a regular New York Jets apologist, looking for reasons to take them on a regular basis. The defense has been trash at times, but that offense still has the capability of moving the chains.
And after nearly defeating New England in week 12, you would assume I would be all over the Jets. Not so fast my friend.
Now’s the time to exit the bandwagon, while everyone is picking the Jets against the better team. Indianapolis is better than New York. Andrew Luck will return Monday and with their backs against the wall, I anticipate Indianapolis to come out and play very well.
Indianapolis still can move the ball well and it won’t be a problem against the Jets’ bottom-half pass defense. The Colts can’t protect Luck, but the Jets can’t rush the passer. New York owns the third-fewest sacks in the NFL this season, so Indianapolis shouldn’t have trouble in that regard.
That plays a significant role in how the Colts can operate on offense. With a clean pocket, Luck should be able to slice through New York’s secondary. — Go Chalk with Indianapolis
Bonus Bets
Kansas City at Atlanta (-3.5) — Kansas City has three huge games in a row. They won last week on the road against Denver, have this game against Atlanta and then go back home next week on a Thursday night against Oakland. Expecting three big efforts in a row, with back-to-back road games, is too much to ask. Expect this game to be the one with less effort. — Go Chalk with Atlanta
Tampa Bay at San Diego (-3.5) — The Chargers are better than many people believe. The rush defense can stop Tampa Bay, forcing Jameis Winston to win this one with his arm. He’s not ready to do that on the road yet. — Go Chalk with San Diego
Houston (+5.5) at Green Bay — This is another one of those slap-in-the-face games. Houston has been a much better team overall this year and brings with it a top-10 pass defense. Philadelphia was a unit of the walking wounded in week 12, so I’m not taking that much stock in Green Bay’s week 12 victory — Go Against The Chalk with Houston
