Ouch.
That’s about all I can say about the week 16 performance. I was cruising to an above-.500 record for a second straight year only to be bit by the week 16 blues.
But there’s still one more week remaining, so we’ll see if week 17 treats me better. This week is always a difficult one, so good luck in the final week of the regular season. Here’s the week 17 NFL best bets.
Last Week: 1-5 ATS
Overall: 46-46-3 ATS
Houston at Tennessee (-3)
This week is all about finding quality teams with a bit of motivation. I could make a pretty strong argument that Tennessee is better than Houston. And had the Titans taken care of business last week, this game would mean a lot more.
But they didn’t, so now this is a meaningless game, meaning the Texans should come into this game actually less motivated than Tennessee.
I understand that the Titans should be a little down after having an opportunity at the AFC South title. But this is still a team that has been atrocious in recent years and they have an opportunity to finish 2016 with a win. It will have to come without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota, but that doesn’t bother me much.
Tennessee’s success is built on the running game. The Titans own the third-best rushing attack in the NFL, and against the Texans, that is a necessary offensive component. Houston won’t allow Tennessee to pass, regardless of who is under center.
Houston has the best pass defense in the NFL, but its rush defense is less intimidating, allowing about 100 yards per game, the 12th-best mark in the NFL.
And while I should be concerned with Tennessee’s pass defense (which ranks in the bottom-five of the NFL), I’m not, considering who Houston will truck out as its quarterback. The Texans are a solid No. 4 seed in the playoffs, so this game is a chore traveling to Tennessee. The Titans may actually be the better team and they have motivation on their side. — Go Chalk with Tennessee
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-4.5)
Here’s another game where the better team will win, and the spread doesn’t do them justice.
Indianapolis is going to play its starters. And even without the hope of playoffs, the Colts should still have enough professionalism that it should take care of the lowly Jaguars.
I know what Jacksonville did last week. I’ll chalk that up to the emotions of losing its head coach and being in a solid matchup. The Jaguars have a solid defense and caught the Titans in back-to-back road contests. Also, Tennessee as an almost touchdown favorite may be too aggressive for them at this point.
In this game, I get a Jacksonville team on the road in the final game of the regular season. The Jaguars have a top-tier defense, but in games with nothing to play for, the defense usually doesn’t make the trip. That’s a bad sign for the Jaguars.
Indianapolis is far more potent on offense, bringing with it a top-12 total offense, with Andrew Luck as the quarterback. Luck shouldn’t have much problem with Jacksonville’s defense, allowing the Colts to end the year on a high note. Take the better team in this one and forget about last week. — Go Chalk with Indianapolis
Kansas City at San Diego (+5.5)
Everyone will be hopping off the San Diego bandwagon after last week’s disaster, so that’s why I’m booking a seat on that runaway train.
The Chargers are better than what their record suggests. Out of their 10 losses, six of them have been by four points or less, and that doesn’t include the major choke job in week 1 against Kansas City.
And while Kansas City is 11-4, they might not be as good as you perceive. Since Nov. 6, the Chiefs have been playing with fire on most occasions. Wins against Jacksonville, Carolina, Denver and Atlanta could have easily gone the other way. And during that period, Kansas City has lost to Tennessee and Tampa Bay.
Kansas City likes to run the football, and it won’t have much success against a San Diego team that ranks in the top-10 in rush defense. Philip Rivers never gives up, so he won’t allow the Chargers to cruise into 2017.
And this is likely Mike McCoy’s last game, so it’s realistic there will be extra motivation to send him off with a victory. — Go Against The Chalk with San Diego
Bonus Bets
New England (-10) at Miami — New England is on a mission. This is a big spread, but Miami is pretty much locked in at the No. 6 position, so the motivation level is likely stronger in New England’s direction. The Patriots need home-field advantage and they won’t make the same mistake they did last year. — Go Chalk with New England
Arizona at Los Angeles (+6.5) — Arizona’s disappointing season turned a little brighter in week 16 with a win at Seattle. But this is the second straight road game and the Rams should compete at a decent level with an Arizona team without much of a defense anymore. — Go Against The Chalk with Los Angeles
Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit — This line scares me to death, but I’ll still hook my life with Green Bay. I’m actually surprised Detroit is pretty much a field-goal underdog to a team widely considered one of the best teams in the NFC at the moment. I understand the Packers defense isn’t great, but I still believe they beat Detroit, which is why I’m giving up the 3.5 points. — Go Chalk with Green Bay
