The underdogs are providing the best bets on a weekly basis.

Underdogs are 25-21 ATS on the season so far, which shouldn’t be a surprise. The overreaction in the NFL from week-to-week always happens, allowing underdogs to cover at a higher rate.

That will correct itself as the season progresses.

Thankfully, the underdogs have come through for my SuperContest entry, as Against The Chalk is in the top-third in the competition, hovering slightly above .500. To win the contest, it’s anticipated to be around 75 percent winners, so there’s still room to grow.

If you’re interested in entering the Westgate SuperContest next season, make sure to visit Vegas Football Proxy on how to enter. They’re the best in the business and can make your weekly picks.

As always, follow my SuperContest journey through this blog and on Twitter @AgainstTheChalk for my final choices each week. Here’s three underdogs I’m eyeing this week as part of my week 4 NFL SuperContest entry.

New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning should get some attention in the week 4 NFL picks. Flickr/ Morbeck

Overall: 8-9-1 ATS

SuperContest: 8-6-1 ATS (8.5 points)

Underdogs: 5-3-1 ATS

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+3.5)

We gave up on those preseason darling Giants incredibly quick.

Week 2’s loss at Dallas was the final straw for many, leading up to a week 3 game against Houston, where New York was a 6.5-point underdog.

If I had an overreaction alarm to sound, it would have been reverberating soundly on that sentiment.

The issues that plagued New York in the first two weeks are correctable. The offensive line was missing assignments. It wasn’t about ability. It was about understanding the scheme from a new head coach.

It’s understandable that it would take a few weeks to fully understand the new system. And last week, the Giants looked much more competent on the offensive side of the ball.

Meanwhile, the Saints can’t stop anyone. New Orleans is giving up 10.9 yards per pass attempt, which should allow New York to move the ball consistently through the air. There is still several weapons available in New York and I don’t trust that Saints defense to do much against those options.

New York’s defense also should be good enough to stop the Saints. In the only game against a competent defense, the Saints couldn’t generate much on the offensive side of the ball. I expect the Saints to move down the field at a decent rate in week 4, but not with the same power it showed in weeks 1 and 3.

I actually have the Giants slightly favored in this contest, so I’ll definitely take the points. — Go Against The Chalk with New York Giants

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+5)

Denver is really good at home.

And we haven’t seen what Kansas City can do against a defense that is going to rush the passer.

Kansas City’s first three opponents have been the Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers. Pittsburgh and Los Angeles are bottom-10 defenses in terms of yards per play allowed.

What Denver can do is rush the quarterback, without having to blitz. That’s important. Pittsburgh can get to quarterbacks, but it has to commit linebackers, which plays into Kansas City’s hands.

And the Broncos haven’t been terrible on the offensive side of the ball this season either. They’re averaging the 13th-most yards per play this season at 5.8, so they should be able to keep up with the Chiefs high-powered offense.

Denver should get a legitimate three-point advantage for being at home, so I like taking the points in this Monday night matchup. — Go Against The Chalk with Denver

Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sure, the Steelers have a high-level offense.

But I’m not sure if there’s much else to like in Pittsburgh. The defense is a joke and was once again exposed in the second half of the week 3 win against Tampa Bay. It can’t close out anybody and its giving up 5.9 yards per play, the 24th-worst mark in the NFL.

Baltimore has made some strides on offense, increasing its per play average from 4.6 in 2017 to 5.0 in 2018. The Ravens defense also has made strides, giving up just 4.3 yards per play in 2018, compared to 5.0 in 2017.

The Ravens have been especially tough on opposing teams’ passing offenses, allowing 4.7 yards per pass attempt. The Steelers are giving up 7.3 yards per attempt.

This game is always close, so it’s difficult to tell what kind of game we’re going to get. But I think I’m getting by far the best defense on the field with Baltimore, with an offense capable of moving the chains. I’d gladly take the points in this game. — Go Against The Chalk with Baltimore

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