Our underdogs almost went 2-0 straight up last week had it not been for a pick-six in overtime that thwarted Washington from winning. Either way, both underdogs covered, while the favorites didn’t fare as well.
We still snuck in one of the favorites, running last week’s record to over .500 again. We’re staying above the .500 mark on a regular basis, and we’re looking to improve even more this week.
Last week: 3-2 ATS
Season: 16-9 ATS
Miami Dolphins (+2) at Tennessee Titans
We’re not believers in Dan Campbell as a head coach in the long-term. But we don’t mind him in the short-term.
The Dolphins needed something. The offense was atrocious, looking to pass on almost every down. The defense was even worse, allowing the most rushing yards per game in the NFL.
Now, rested after a bye week, and likely ready to return to the field, we’re buying the Dolphins stock — at least for now.
The talent is there. The defensive line should be good, but it hasn’t been so far. Ndamukong Suh is a beast and with the new look on the Dolphins coaching staff, we believe he will be tough to stop.
And we’re anticipating the Dolphins to at least try to establish the run on offense, making that offense much more dangerous. As only a passing team, the Dolphins don’t strike fear in too many opponents.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill needs to have a strong rushing game to open up passing lanes. We believe that will begin to happen now that Campbell is the head coach.
This is showing a lot of faith for a team that has been blown out in two of four games this season. But we’re buying the new-look Dolphins for the first few weeks after the bye week. — Go against the chalk with Miami
Washington Redskins at New York Jets (-6)
We had a reader this week point out that the New York Jets also would be a good Survivor pool pick. We not only agree with that assessment, we’re taking the straight up win even further.
We love this pick. The spread is big, but that shouldn’t be a problem for the Jets, which have been dominant on the defensive side of the ball, and now defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson is back in the lineup.
The Jets got healthy during the bye week, while Washington is attempting to recover from losing on a pick-six in overtime last week to the Atlanta Falcons.
This is back-to-back road games for the Redskins and we anticipate they will be exhausted after being in wire-to-wire finishes in the last two weeks.
Washington is 0-2 on the road this season and it is losing by about eight points per game on the road.
This game is all about the letdown for the Redskins and we anticipate the Jets to flex some muscles in this one. — Go chalk with New York Jets
Arizona Cardinals (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
We’ll keep riding the Arizona train for as long as oddsmakers will allow us.
Did anyone actually watch the Monday Night Football game with the Steelers? We understand that Mike Vick helped lead the final 80-yard drive to win the game against San Diego, but that wasn’t all about Vick, and for the other three-and-a-half quarters he was a mess.
He’s averaging 163.5 passing yards per game since taking over for the injured Ben Roethlisberger and that offense doesn’t move on a regular basis.
Le’Veon Bell is still a force, but without the threat of a passing game, we anticipate the Arizona Cardinals defense to limit the run, thus forcing Vick to pass.
Part of the small spread may be linked to Arizona’s back-to-back road games. But we’re canceling that out with the short week for Pittsburgh and having to travel to the West Coast for a Monday night game.
The Cardinals have been dominant on the road this season, winning by a combined 90-40 margin against two opponents away from home.
We like the Steelers with Roethlisberger, but the Cardinals are a better team. We’re not buying the letdown for the Cardinals in this one. — Go chalk with Arizona
Houston Texans (Even) at Jacksonville Jaguars
This game likely won’t be on too many television sets this weekend, but it’s worth watching to at least see two offenses go up and down the field.
Both teams rank in the bottom-10 in points allowed. The Jaguars are allowing the second-most points per game at 29, while the Texans aren’t far behind, allowing 27 points per game.
Neither defense has been unable to get off the field. Jacksonville has faced 341 plays from scrimmage this season, the third-most plays against in the NFL, while the Texans have seen 318 plays against them.
So, there won’t be much defense, so we’re going with the offense that we can trust. And surprisingly, it’s Houston.
The yo-yo quarterback philosophy doesn’t work in the NFL, but we trust Brian Hoyer much more than Ryan Mallett. Hoyer can manage a game and with Arian Foster getting more snaps, this offense should be able to move the ball at will against the Jaguars leaky secondary.
And even with the consistent turnover at quarterback, the Texans still own the fifth-best offense in total yards in the NFL. The Jaguars have the 19th-best offense and struggles even more than Houston on third downs, converting only 36 percent of third-down conversions.
We know that Jacksonville is coming back from three straight road games, but the homefield advantage won’t help overcome Houston’s offensive onslaught. — Go on the road with Houston
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
We sold our stock on Kansas City after week 2 when it couldn’t beat the Broncos, so we’re a bit surprised the Chiefs aren’t a touchdown underdog in this game.
Because of that, we’re going with Minnesota.
It’s amazing how good everyone’s memories are when it comes to past success of NFL and college football teams. Kansas City has been atrocious in the last three games, culminating in a monumental collapse against the Chicago Bears last week.
We understand that Kansas City was 9-7 last year. But let’s look at how that season ended. The Chiefs had their biggest win of the 2014 season at home on Nov. 16 against the Seattle Seahawks.
From there, Kansas lost to the winless Oakland Raiders, and went 2-4 down the stretch, with one of the wins against those same Raiders later in the season.
After opening up with a win against the Texans this season and competing well on a Thursday night against Denver, the Chiefs are 0-3 with double-digit losses to Green Bay and Cincinnati, and the earlier-mentioned collapse against Chicago.
The secondary doesn’t stop anybody anymore. The Chiefs rank sixth-worst against the pass in the NFL and have allowed 13 touchdowns, compared to only two interceptions.
The Vikings haven’t shown much in the passing game, but we’re anticipating the bye week allowed Adrian Peterson to get even more prepared after missing out on last season, and Teddy Bridgewater to keep improving in only his second season.
We’re not looking in the rearview mirror at what Kansas City did last year. The Chiefs are a different team and are now without their best player in Jamaal Charles. Don’t be stuck in the past. — Go chalk with Minnesota
