I’ve cooled a little since getting off to a hot start in the NFL. The best bets are still good (4-2 ATS in the last two weeks). It’s just those bonus bets that are killing me.
It’s been a tough go in the last two weeks, but I’m still over .500 for the season and now’s the time to recognize which teams are for real and which are pretenders.
I’ve been all over Tennessee this season, not missing a pick involving them, so I’ll try my luck again with them. Minnesota has a bye so I can’t guarantee a win with them (the Vikings are the lone team still undefeated against the spread), and I’ll try to avoid Baltimore…maybe, which has burned me in the last two weeks.
Week 6 is almost off and running, so here’s the week 6 NFL best bets.
Last Week: 2-4 ATS
Overall: 16-13-1 ATS
Kansas City (+1) at Oakland
Andy Reid is a machine after a bye. He’s 15-2 in his career after a bye. That’s a pretty significant red flag if you’re backing the Raiders.
But we’ll dismiss that for a second and look at these two teams. I’m not sure how good either of them are.
The Chiefs are 2-2, with wins against bad teams and losses against pretty good teams. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 4-1, but the four wins are by a combined 12 points against New Orleans, Tennessee, Baltimore and San Diego. Those teams own a combined record of 6-11.
Those aren’t exactly world beaters.
The Raiders have been playing a dangerous game of late, falling behind for the entire game, only to win in the final minutes. That’s not sustainable in the NFL.
Oakland owns the worst defense in the NFL. The Raiders allow 30 more total yards per game than the next-worst defense in the league. They also allow an astonishing seven yards per play, which is also the worst in the league.
The Chiefs aren’t so great themselves, which is very un-Chief-like. But they’re far better than Oakland. And offensively, they’ll look to get the running game going, which has been absent in the past few weeks, giving way to Alex Smith chucking it all over the field.
Smith throwing 40 times per game is not a recipe for success for the Chiefs. Reid is a master at circling the wagons during a bye week. They’ll get back to running the football and controlling the clock, which will doom the Raiders. — Go Against the Chalk with Kansas City
Jacksonville at Chicago (-3)
Another bye week team, but with a different result. This game will likely be viewed by only a handful of people outside of these markets, but that doesn’t mean we can’t exploit this line.
The Bears are getting better. The overall record doesn’t show it, but the defense is making some adjustments, and at least slowing down the opposition at a better rate in the last few weeks.
Chicago has outplayed Detroit and Indianapolis in the last two weeks, but just didn’t come home with a victory in week 5 against the Colts. Defensively, they sacked Andrew Luck five times and the Bears outgained Chicago 522 to 396 yards. Chicago also limited the Colts to less than 100 yards rushing.
I’m not driving the Brian Hoyer train, but I’ll hitch a ride for a few weeks. He’s shown in the past to have big outings and then completely unravel. He shouldn’t have much of a problem against Jacksonville, which is allowing almost 28 points per game, the eighth-highest total in the NFL.
There’s something missing in Jacksonville. Everyone thought it would be improved, but the offense just doesn’t do much of anything. What looked like a promising offense last year just hasn’t found their step this season.
That will continue this week on the road against Chicago. Jacksonville has never been a good road team, and in its one true road game this season, it got hammered by a one-win San Diego team. — Go Chalk with Chicago
Los Angeles at Detroit (-3)
That was a gritty win from Detroit in week 5 against Philadelphia. I didn’t expect that.
The Lions have plenty of areas of concern, but they can definitely move the football, which has been a somewhat surprising deficiency for the Rams this season.
The Rams are allowing too many yards on the ground, giving up 122.2 per game, ranking in the bottom five of the NFL. The pass rush also has been a little lax, ranking in the bottom 10 for sacks.
What also is hurting the Rams is the inability to get off the field. Los Angeles’s defense is on the field for more than 30 minutes per game, the 10th most in the NFL. They won’t get a break against Detroit either this week.
The Rams’ strength isn’t what it used to be and that offense still leaves a lot to be desired. Detroit shouldn’t have much problem controlling this game and should put up some decent points. — Go Chalk with Detroit
Bonus Bets
Cleveland (+7) at Tennessee — Tennessee wins this game, but Cleveland battles. This is one of only a few opportunities for the Browns to actually win a game and they will come out motivated. Don’t worry about the week 5 result against New England. Cleveland’s third-string quarterback went down with injury and it just wasn’t the same. The Titans aren’t as good against the run as you would assume, so Cleveland should find some holes. — Go Against the Chalk with Cleveland
San Francisco (+8) at Buffalo — Buffalo’s backs aren’t against the wall anymore so expect somewhat of a letdown in this game. Both offenses are among the league’s worst, so I’m not expecting a tremendous amount of points. San Francisco outplayed Arizona for the majority of the Thursday night game. However, turnovers plagued them, much like it has for the majority of the season. The 49ers compete well on the road, even though they’re traveling coast-to-coast. — Go Against the Chalk with San Francisco
Philadelphia at Washington (+3) — People are all over Philadelphia in this game, moving this line from the Eagles being an underdog to now the Redskins being a field goal home dog. I’ve been railing against Washington for weeks, but there’s just something about their ability to move the ball. The Redskins are a solid underdog and a bad favorite. — Go Against the Chalk with Washington
