A miraculous tie pushed my week 7 record to over .500. Seattle and Arizona played one of the worst games ever recorded, and thanks to some of the worst clutch kicking I’ve ever seen, my Seattle +2 came through.
The luck continues to shine my way (I wouldn’t mind some of that coming my way in college football) in the NFL, so we’ll see if week 8 keeps that trend alive.
Bye weeks are upon us, so there’s less games to choose from. That shouldn’t matter this week as many of the spreads are low enough that we’re basically picking winners. Let’s see if we have the right ones to proceed.
Here’s the week 8 NFL best bets.
Last Week: 4-2 ATS
Overall: 23-17-2 ATS
Detroit at Houston (-2.5)
It may seem strange to throw my support for Houston after being so ugly on Monday night against Denver.
But I expected that outcome. That’s who Houston has been and continues to be, even with new personnel. Thankfully for the Texans, Detroit isn’t near the level that Denver, Minnesota or even a Brady-less Patriots are this year.
They’re more of a middle of the pack team on a nice three-game winning streak. Oh, and that winning streak has produced a combined margin of victory of seven points. We could easily be talking about the Lions as being on a six-game losing streak as opposed to a three-game winning streak.
And the way that defense has played, I’m surprised we’re not. Only Oakland and Cleveland are worse on a per-play average on defense. The Lions give up 6.3 yards per play. Teams are converting 51 percent of third-down conversions, the highest in the NFL and they’re allowing 385 yards per game.
The Texans aren’t very good on offense, but against bad defenses, it can move the ball. They will attempt to run the football, which has proven to be a decent gameplan against Detroit. And when the Lions are on offense, they will struggle to do what they do best.
The Lions average 259 yards through the air and Matthew Stafford has a QBR of 105. The only problem is that Houston owns the second-best pass defense in terms of yards allowed. The Texans also have limited opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 81.4.
Houston will force the Lions to run, which they don’t do as well. Forget about Monday night and how the Texans have fared against upper echelon teams. Detroit isn’t one of those, so the Texans should win this game by a field goal or more. — Go Chalk with Houston
Washington (+3) vs. Cincinnati
I heard a description about Washington the other day that pretty much hits the nail on the head on who the Redskins are once again in 2016. They’re pretty good at every phase of the game. Not great, but pretty good.
And while that may not seem like a compliment, pretty good can win nine to 10 games in the NFL.
So when I see them as an underdog against Cincinnati, which I would say isn’t great at any phase of the game either, I get excited for the opportunity presented in week 8. The Bengals are a different team than the last few years.
The defense, a calling card of their recent success, is mired in mediocrity. Last week against Cleveland, the Bengals allowed 352 total yards, including 180 on the ground. The defense was able to capitalize on crucial turnovers by the Browns, which likely won’t happen with the Redskins, with Matt Jones likely out as the main option.
Jones has been a fumbling machine, so if the Redskins can keep from turning the ball over, I like my chances. These are two pretty evenly matched teams, but I actually like Washington’s offense a little better than Cincinnati’s.
I’m getting points, so I’ll hammer the Redskins in week 8. — Go Against the Chalk with Washington
Jacksonville (+3.5) at Tennessee
I’m a glutton for punishment. I swore against ever picking a road team again on a Thursday night after I went after Denver two weeks ago against San Diego.
The Broncos looked horrendous and lost. Then I followed my guidelines last week and picked the Packers and reaped the rewards.
So why am I backing out of that plan already? Because I’ve been hot in Titans games this season, so I’m letting it ride.
I’ve yet to miss a pick involving Tennessee this season. For seven weeks, I’ve been 7-0 ATS picking in Titans games. So why not follow my hunch for week 8?
The Jaguars are one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this season. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have talent. The Jaguars have plenty of talent on offense and defense, which should frighten any team preparing for them on a short week.
And while Jacksonville didn’t look good on defense in week 7, it does employ a decent defense. The Jaguars own a top-10 defense in total yards and limit the opposition to 4.8 yards per play. The problem has been the lack of time of possession by the offense, which shouldn’t be a problem this week.
Tennessee is battered and bruised in the secondary. Two starters are injured, Perrish Cox and Rashad Johnson, which will be difficult to replace on a short week. It’s difficult to trust the Jaguars, but they’re better than their 2-4 record indicates. I’m not sure if the Titans are as good as their 3-4 record shows. This will be close, so I’ll take the points. — Go Against the Chalk with Jacksonville
Bonus Bets
New York Jets (-2.5) at Cleveland — I’m assuming Cleveland is a popular bet to finally get a win. Not so fast, though. New York doesn’t defend the pass, but can stop the run. That doesn’t bode well for Cleveland’s offense. The Jets aren’t as bad as they’ve shown this season. Turnovers have a way of working themselves out, so I’m backing the better team in the Jets, especially giving away less than a field. — Go Chalk with New York Jets
New England (-6.5) at Buffalo — Ain’t no mountain too high and no spread too big to stop the Patriots. New England is out for blood and Buffalo is on the revenge list. This could get ugly quick. — Go Chalk with New England
Oakland at Tampa Bay (-1) — Oakland is as inconsistent as it comes…unless it’s playing in the 1 p.m. window on the east coast. The Raiders have been surprisingly effective in that time frame this season, but that stops in week 8. The Buccaneers can score with the Raiders and have enough on the defensive side of the ball to make a stop or two. It’s too tough of a challenge for Oakland to go back-to-back victories with consecutive road games again. Give me the Bucs to win outright. — Go Chalk with Tampa Bay
