My underdogs have failed me in recent weeks. That shouldn’t be a major surprise, though, since the more weeks that are played, the more separation occurs between teams in the NFL.
That means favorites have more value at this juncture of the season. I’ll still be looking at underdogs in this week’s Las Vegas Westgate SuperContest. Here’s my three underdogs that I’m watching in this week’s SuperContest.
Overall: 18-21-3 ATS
SuperContest: 14-17-4 ATS (16 points)
Underdogs: 10-9-2 ATS
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
Maybe we’re overvaluing the Eagles.
Jacksonville still has one of the better defenses in the NFL. And Philadelphia does not.
The Eagles are giving up 5.8 yards per play, and that has increased to 6.3 yards per play in the last three weeks.
The Jaguars are still a yard better per play on defense, and the offense isn’t that far off. Philadelphia hasn’t found enough of a rhythm on the offensive side of the ball yet to be declared a favorite on the road against Jacksonville.
I understand that Jacksonville isn’t good on the offensive end, but this should be a game that the Jaguars win. — Go Against The Chalk with Jacksonville
Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Detroit Lions
This is a much different story than we anticipated after week 1.
The Lions were left for dead and the Seahawks were still being given a break, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Now, oddsmakers are pegging the Lions as a field-goal favorite, which has me scratching my head a bit. The Lions are one of the better offensive teams in the NFL, but they don’t do much on defense.
The Seahawks still have Russell Wilson at the quarterback position and a defense that is good enough to slow down the Lions. Seattle is coming off a bye week and this should be a good matchup for an offensive line that is not one of the better units in the NFL. The Lions give up 5.3 yards per rush, one of the worst marks in the NFL.
Seattle is the better all-around team. – Go Against The Chalk with Seattle
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (Pick)
This game doesn’t mean as much to the Saints.
That’s why I’m looking at the Vikings in this game. Minnesota still has an offense capable of consistently moving the ball and the defense has shown some serious strides in recent weeks.
At the end of the season, I still believe the Saints are a better team, both on offense and eventually on defense.
However, this game is ripe for the Vikings, after the Saints won a hard-fought game on the road against Baltimore in week 7. Back-to-back road games won’t work well for the Saints in week 8. — Go for the Win with Minnesota
