It’s been a long year for the favorites in the NFL. That hasn’t helped my best three favorites each week in the NFL.
I ran into more trouble last week with a 1-2 ATS mark with the favorites. At some point, this is going to turn around, so I’m anticipating better luck for the week 9 NFL picks featuring the three best favorites that will cover the spread.
Favorites: 7-16-1 ATS
Overall: 18-28-1 ATS
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (-4.5)
Baltimore isn’t as good as it looked in week 8. The Ravens got a free pass against a Miami team that didn’t want anything to do with the early week showdown.
Don’t expect that same kind of matchup in week 9. The Ravens’ main strength — its defense — isn’t that much better than Tennessee’s. Baltimore ranks 10th in total defense, while the Titans rank 16th. Offensively, though, it’s not close.
Baltimore’s offense is horrendous. It ranks second from the bottom in total yards. And the Titans average almost an entire yard more per play than the Ravens, which is a large amount for those scoring at home.
Most importantly, Tennessee’s strength — running the football — will square off against Baltimore’s main weakness — stopping the run. Baltimore ranks third from the bottom in stopping the run. The Titans rank eighth in the NFL in rushing yards per game.
I get the Titans at home in a game that they have a nice matchup. I’ll gladly only give up 4.5 points. — Go Chalk with Tennessee
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at New York Jets
We’ll get an early start to the best bets this week with a Thursday night game appearing on the list.
I haven’t been sold on the Jets all season and now they’re in the middle of a three-game losing streak. Those games have been close, but the losing is sometimes contagious. Last year, the Jets went on two separate four-game losing streaks, so this team is no stranger to losing several games in a row.
And this spot is a prime spot to continue the losing ways. The Bills run the ball well, ranking in the top-10 in rushing yards per game. The Jets are sixth from the bottom in stopping the run.
Offensively, the Bills continue to get better and show that they can move the chains. The Jets aren’t as bad as many believed they would be on offense, but they’re not good enough to carry on to a victory.
Defensively, the Bills have been treacherous on opposing quarterbacks, while notching a plus-14 turnover margin. The Jets have seven fumbles and seven interceptions on the season through only eight weeks. Watch for the Bills to be opportunistic and win by more than a field goal. — Go Chalk with Buffalo
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (E)
So this isn’t necessarily a favorite and I see some lines putting the Chiefs as a favorite, but I’m not sure if that’s the best move by the betting public.
The Cowboys are starting to look dominant on both of the offensive and defensive lines. And when judging which teams are the best in the NFL, it all starts up front. The Cowboys are harassing quarterbacks to the tune of 25 sacks, the fifth-best mark in the NFL.
And the Cowboys are once again one of the top rushing teams in the NFL, registering the second-most yards per game on the ground.
We’re enamored by the Chiefs’ start to the season. But injuries are starting to take its toll on that defense. The Chiefs give up the third-most yards per game and allow 6 yards per play, almost an entire yard more per play than the Cowboys.
Dallas’ defense is legitimate at the moment. And the offense is good enough to score with Kansas City. Let this spread teeter toward Kansas City and book the Cowboys. — Go for the win with Dallas
