Only one game remains in the 2015 NFL season, so we’re turning that sad reality into our way too early look at the 2016 fantasy football draft.
In this edition of looking ahead to 2016, we’re looking at five running backs who finished sixth to 10th in fantasy points in 2015. We’ll see what their chances are next season in putting up more points for fantasy owners.
6. Lamar Miller, Miami, 184.90 points
Hype train: All Aboard
Miller didn’t register 1,000 yards rushing and wasn’t exactly dynamic in the passing game with less than 400 yards, but he still turned in the sixth-most fantasy points.
That’s a good sign for future potential.
We’re a bit worried about Jay Ajayi, but maybe his emergence had more to do with Miller being a free agent and less about Ajayi being a better fit. Because if you watched the Dolphins this season, you would understand that Miami’s offensive scheme was atrocious.
Miller was often phased out of the gameplan for some reason, giving way for Ryan Tannehill to not move the chains. Once they started to feature Miller more, Miami actually won a few games.
If Miller goes to a better offense, he will shine. If he stays with Miami, maybe he’ll get more usage. But even if he has similar usage to this year, he’s a top-10 option, which makes him a safe bet in the first two rounds.
7. David Johnson, Arizona, 173.80 points
Hype train: All aboard
Johnson’s numbers are a bit skewed, since he wasn’t even the starter for the majority of the season. However, when he did get the chance, he made the most of his touches.
What excites us most about Johnson is that he’s an every-down back, who can gain yards on the ground and is dangerous in the passing game.
As long as he starts, which he likely should next season, he should be listed in that top-three round category. He proved to be a touchdown magnet, while not seeing many touches.
He will get far more looks next season, meaning his chances at attaining the same amount of touchdowns or more should be within reach. The Cardinals will have to move away from utilizing Carson Palmer so much with his age being a concern, opening the way for Johnson to have a breakout season next year.
8. Chris Ivory, New York Jets, 172.70 points
Hype train: Hop off
Ivory bolted out of the gates this season with 20-point fantasy efforts in three of his first four games. Then, he slowed down considerably, notching only two double-digit performances in the final seven games.
By the end of the season, Ivory was splitting duties in the backfield, too, which should give pause to any fantasy owner looking to draft him high next season.
Ivory still managed 1,000 yards this season, no small feat in today’s NFL. But if he’s going to have an ADP of the second round or early third round, then we’ll pass. His inability to stay on the field shows us that the Jets may not be confident in him.
And he’s a free agent, meaning that if he moves away from the run-first Jets, he may decrease in value even more. We didn’t like how the season concluded for Ivory, so we’re staying away from him in the early rounds.
9. Matt Forte, Chicago, 170.70 points
Hype train: Just right
We doubt Forte will have much fanfare heading into next season, which is good for the aging running back.
Don’t dare reach for him, but if he’s available in the middle rounds, he’s worth an add.
He showed this season that he still has the ability to pile up fantasy points as a solid RB2. He still has the ability to be a good RB2, but we’re downgrading him from an RB1.
He likely won’t return to the Bears next season, meaning he will have to find a new niche in an offense. He may not get as many looks, decreasing his value. If he stays healthy, which is a big if, he still can find the end zone and put up yardage in the rushing and passing games, as evidenced last season.
He went over 100 total yards in three of his final five games, and turned in double-digit fantasy points in four of those games.
10. Latavius Murray, Oakland, 163.80 points
Hype train: All Aboard
We love finding running backs who didn’t necessarily find the end zone, but will continue to have several chances at touchdowns in the future.
Murray fits that mold. He registered more than 1,000 yards rushing, but tallied only six touchdowns. That’s OK, though. He’ll still have the opportunities next year at getting more touchdowns, which is all fantasy owners can hope for when drafting a running back.
Murray has no competition at the running back position in an offense that looks to continue to get better. Murray’s upside is huge and we like him to fully grasp the RB1 role next season.
He will have some hype, but we’re taking him in the second round if we can.
