The first round of the NCAA tournament went about the way I expected, except for that loss by Michigan State. Middle Tennessee made some ridiculous shots, but it appears it was underseeded, much like some other teams.
Despite the questionable seeding this tournament, we saw everything that the NCAA tournament provides on a yearly basis. There were some upsets and some teams that technically were seeded lower than their opponents, but were actually favorites, like VCU and Gonzaga.
I hammered through the first round, which is likely the first time in my life that I’ve been solid against the spread in the NCAA tournament. I went 7-1 ATS, with my only loss being Dayton, which disappointed heavily in a bracket that’s wide open.
Now I’m looking to Saturday’s second round and putting forth my best bets.
First round: 7-1 ATS
Wichita State (-2) vs. Miami
This proves my point about the incorrect seeding. There’s no reason why the Shockers should have been in the First Four. Several of Wichita State’s losses came with Fred VanVleet out with injury.
The committee must have looked past that and instead couldn’t look past Jim Boeheim being absent during the first part of the season for Syracuse. The resume didn’t look great for the Shockers, but it still was enough to be better ranked than 11th.
What that seed did was punish Vanderbilt, Arizona and now Miami. Please tell me the last time a No. 3 seed was actually an underdog in a matchup against an 11th seed. Usually this would scream value, but you already know my feelings about Miami.
The Hurricanes struggled with a bad Buffalo team and that will continue against Wichita State. The Shockers can match the Hurricanes’ intensity on the defensive end and can score at a better clip. I’m not counting out VanVleet or Ron Baker in the NCAA tournament. They’re money in this tournament and while the Shockers are underseeded, Miami is overseeded at No. 3.
Give away the points and don’t be shocked with a cover. — Go chalk with Wichita State
Gonzaga (Even) vs. Utah
Another 11 seed that is a nightmare for a three-seed. I’m just not sold on the three seeds. West Virginia is already out and I’m not sure if we’ll see any three-seeds in the Sweet 16.
The Utes are good, but the Bulldogs aren’t a traditional 11-seed. Gonzaga has serious talent and can match up with Utah’s size. That should be trouble for the Utes.
The Bulldogs employ a solid trio of Kyle Wiltjer, Domantas Sabonis and Eric McClellan that will give Utah fits on the defensive end. Jakob Poeltl is one of the best big men in the country for the Utes, but he won’t be enough to stop the attack of Gonzaga. With a wide open bracket now in the Midwest, don’t be surprised if the slipper still fits for the Bulldogs. — Go for the win with Gonzaga
Connecticut (+8) vs. Kansas
The Huskies looked bad in the first half of Thursday’s first-round win against Colorado, but that quickly changed in the second half. With UConn through to the second round, I’m less worried about fatigue playing a role in the Huskies’ tournament run.
Connecticut needed to win the American Conference to get into the tournament, and it did in dramatic fashion. We saw the Kevin Ollie-led team do the same thing (albeit in the Big East) during UConn’s last NCAA title. That’s why I’m confident in what will happen Saturday against the Jayhawks.
Kansas is hot. There’s no denying that. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 (again) and that conference proved to be the toughest week in and week out during the regular season.
But if you poll experts around college basketball, they would likely tell you this Jayhawks team isn’t as talented as recent years. That worries me as the tournament continues, especially against a team like the Huskies, which is on a roll.
This game stays close into the final minutes and Huskies cover the points. — Go against the chalk with UConn
