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OK, we’re finished disparaging our college football picks. This is the week we get back on track with at least a 4-1 or even a 5-0 mark.
Last week: 2-3 ATS
Season: 15-19-1 ATS
Northwestern at Nebraska (-7.5)
We’re not sure why we didn’t put Iowa as a winner last week against Northwestern since we were telling everyone that the Hawkeyes would roll the Wildcats, but we can’t go back now.
Instead, we’re focusing on the future, and that future includes the Wildcats’ season completely going down the tube.
We’ve seen Northwestern do this in the past.
Let’s go back to 2013 when the Wildcats were 4-0 and hosting Game Day against Ohio State. Northwestern lost and happened to be a part of one of the worst bad beats in the history of gambling.
That season, after going 4-0 to begin the season, the Wildcats lost seven games in a row before winning the season finale. That sounds eerily similar to this season where the Wildcats started out 5-0 and now have suffered two blowouts in a row.
Get ready for three straight blowouts.
Despite all the criticism toward the Cornhuskers, which they’ve generally deserved, Nebraska is a few plays away from having a much better record than 3-4 overall. Nebraska lost on a Hail Mary, lost in the last seconds to Illinois and Wisconsin, and lost in overtime to Miami.
That gives us enough evidence to believe Nebraska should be a candidate to have a good second half to the season, especially after last week’s blowout win at Minnesota.
Forget about Northwestern’s start to the season. This game won’t be close. — Go chalk with Nebraska
Duke (+2) at Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech isn’t a good football team, so we’re wondering why oddsmakers set this line at minus-6 in favor of the Hokies to begin the week.
The betting public has pushed the Blue Devils to less than a field goal underdog, but that still isn’t enough. The Blue Devils will win this game because they’re better. We don’t care that Virginia Tech is at home. Since beating Purdue in week 3, the Hokies are 1-3, with losses against East Carolina, Miami and Pittsburgh.
The ACC is full of mediocrity and both of these teams do that well. But we trust the Blue Devils more.
They’ve shown during the last few years to be able to win these kinds of games and so far this season, the only setback was a home loss to Northwestern…when the Wildcats were playing at a high level.
The Blue Devils have shown to get better throughout the last few seasons and that’s happening again. This should not only be a cover, but a straight up victory. — Go against the chalk with Duke
Florida State at Georgia Tech (+6.5)
Maybe we should have just given up on Georgia Tech. We have during the last few weeks, but we’re betting on one last stand for the Yellow Jackets during an extremely disappointing season.
The offense just hasn’t been there this season and the defense still isn’t stopping anyone.
So why are we betting on the Yellow Jackets?
Because this game just feels like the last gasp for Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech has lost five games in a row after being one of the top picks earlier in the season to compete for an ACC title. That won’t happen this year, so that makes this game, against undefeated Florida State, the Yellow Jackets’ national title game.
And it’s not as if Florida State has been dominating. Sure, the Seminoles won by three touchdowns last week against Louisville, but the Seminoles struggled for the first half before getting it together in the second half.
The Seminoles haven’t struggled against many teams in the past few years, but Georgia Tech has been one of those tough outs. We expect that again this weekend. — Go against the chalk with Georgia Tech
Western Kentucky (+17) at LSU
We’re just not sold on LSU. Sure, the Tigers beat Florida last week, but without a starting quarterback, the Gators don’t have enough on offense to compete on a weekly basis in the SEC.
The Tigers are just too dependent on that running game and these throw-in games have given SEC teams trouble this season. Mississippi lost last week to Memphis, and Mississippi State struggled for much of the game against Louisiana Tech.
And these kind of games usually give the Tigers a bit of trouble. Coming off a big win last week that required a fake field goal should be a warning sign of a letdown this week.
Western Kentucky is good enough to compete if the Tigers don’t come out with any emotion. The Hilltoppers have one loss on their resume and they’ve pretty much blown through the entire schedule this season.
The Tigers will suffer from a case of looking past the Hilltoppers, allowing Western Kentucky to stay close enough it cover the 17-point spread. — Go against the chalk with Western Kentucky
Virginia at North Carolina (-18)
This game just feels like a blowout.
North Carolina has an explosive offense. Virginia doesn’t have a defense and its offense isn’t good enough to keep up in a track meet.
The Cavaliers have allowed at least 26 points in every game this season, and that includes William & Mary. Last week, against Syracuse, the Cavaliers allowed 38 points, but still won the game.
The Tar Heels are much different than the Orange, so Virginia won’t be able to score like that.
North Carolina should be able to score at will against the Cavaliers, so this game won’t be close. Oddsmakers set this one at 12 points, but the betting public has responded in a big way, putting the Tar Heels at minus-18. We’re going with the betting public again. — Go chalk with North Carolina
