We don’t understand all the love for Mississippi.
Oddsmakers continue to value the Rebels as a top-tier team, but in the last month, Mississippi has been anything but college football’s best.
It all started after the early season victory against Alabama. At that time, the Rebels were 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread, and beating the spread at a colossal rate. Then, on Sept. 26, the Rebels needed the entire game to outlast Vanderbilt.
Many chalked it up as just a hangover. But looking back, it started a downward trend that Mississippi has been unable to shake off. Since that time, the Rebels are 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. One of those wins against the spread came against New Mexico State, so in SEC play, the Rebels are 1-4 ATS since beating Alabama.
Despite the troubles, oddsmakers still listed the Rebels as double-digit favorites against Arkansas, which has been in a different direction than Mississippi recently. Since starting the season 1-3 straight up and 1-3 against the spread, the Razorbacks are 4-1 in both categories.
Both teams play LSU in their next game – Arkansas next week and Mississippi in two weeks – so it will be interesting to see if both teams become even in the eyes of oddsmakers.
Could Nebraska play spoiler?
It’s no secret that Mike Riley is generally a second-half of the season kind of coach. He did it consistently at Oregon State, where the team started slow, but came back to have a strong showing in the second part of the season.
In his final 11 seasons with the Beavers, he was markedly improved in the second part of the season six times. Three of those seasons saw a combined season-ending total of 22-3.
A few seasons didn’t show much different from the first to the second, and three times his teams were far worse during the final part. So, history shows us that Riley is more often than not to have his teams better in the second part of the season than the first.
And for Nebraska, the record doesn’t do it much justice anyway. Five of Nebraska’s six losses have come by less than one possession. And now, the Huskers have a real possibility of going to a bowl game, with a contest at Rutgers and then at home against Iowa.
If Nebraska can find its way, it would likely play spoiler to two undefeated teams – Michigan State and Iowa – in the Big 10 looking to crash the College Football Playoff party.
And as far as gambling on the Huskers, trust them as only underdogs. Nebraska is now 3-0 ATS as an underdog, and 2-5 as a favorite. The Cornhuskers will likely be favorites against Rutgers and will turn around and be underdogs against the Hawkeyes.
Get on board with the Oklahomas
It’s time to forget about those early season struggles with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
The Sooners and Cowboys beat the spread again this past week, with the Sooners dismantling Iowa State in the second half and the Cowboys throttling TCU.
For Oklahoma, the recent successes have been a stark contrast to what it did against Texas on Oct. 10. Since that loss, the Sooners are 4-0 ATS and straight up and it’s not even close. Oklahoma is winning those games by an average of 45.5 points per game.
Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is beating smaller spreads, but erasing any doubts we had in the early season. Since starting the season 2-2 against the spread, the Cowboys are now 4-1 ATS in the last five games, and have looked like the team we believed in the early season that could be a darkhorse Big 12 title contender.
The Cowboys just needed to get to November unscathed, and now they have the inside track to an undefeated season by hosting the best teams. Oklahoma State’s remaining three games are at Iowa State, and home against Baylor and Oklahoma.
Oddsmakers will likely start adjusting the Cowboys’ spreads to a higher value, so we’ll see how far it climbs in the final part of the season.
