Was that the easiest over in the history of college football last week?
Baylor and Texas Tech had the highest over/under in the history of college football last week and it still wasn’t enough to bring in the under. The two teams went for 42 points in the first quarter en route to 98 points. The remarkable aspect of that score?
Both defenses came to play in the second half, allowing 28 total points.
This week, expect even more scoring in the Big 12, as three of the five games feature double-digit spreads.
Here are two games we’ll keep an eye on this weekend. Last week’s betting guide for each power-five conference went 6-4, with a 2-0 mark in the Big 12. Overall for the season, the betting guides have been 5-5 in the Big 12 and 27-23 overall in the power-five conferences.
Baylor at Kansas (+44.5)
We don’t have a great feeling about this game, but any time we see a minus-44.5 in a conference game, we figure we’re forced to take the underdog.
The Bears are going to win this game…by a lot. The opening line gave the Jayhawks the benefit of the doubt with a 38-point spread. The betting public pushed that up by almost a touchdown.
We understand Baylor is really good and the Jayhawks are historically bad. We were on the historically bad bandwagon at the beginning of the season when we took the under when oddsmakers set the season over/under for Kansas at 1.5 wins.
But to expect the Jayhawks not to cover 44.5 points may be too much to ask. Kansas has shown the ability to score at home, notching 23 and 38 points respectively in the two home games this season. On the road, the Jayhawks are averaging 13.5 points per game, but we anticipate some garbage time scores in this game.
Baylor may be winning by five touchdowns at halftime, but the Jayhawks starters should be able to move the ball decent enough against the Bears’ third stringers in the second half.
Don’t sweat the big deficit in the early going. This spread will be won or lost on the backs of Kansas starters vs. Baylor’s scout team in the fourth quarter. — Go against the chalk with Kansas
Oklahoma vs. Texas (+17.5)
The Longhorns obituary has been featured in every media outlet during the last week.
While everyone has given up on them, we’re not losing more than two touchdowns worth of faith in the Red River Rivalry.
Let’s take a deep breath and look at the Longhorns’ losses this season. All four have come against ranked opponents – Notre Dame, California, Oklahoma State and TCU. In fact, only the Fighting Irish have a loss in that entire group.
Sure, some of the losses have been ugly, like against Notre Dame and TCU. But Texas showed fight against California at home and then again on the road against Oklahoma State.
We’re not losing total faith in the Longhorns, and most importantly, we trust that head coach Charlie Strong will have this team motivated this week against the Sooners. And while Oklahoma has looked good this season, the defense has shown several holes.
We’re going with the Longhorns showing some pride in this game and making it closer than the experts believe. — Go against the chalk with Texas
Other Big 12 games
Odds provided by Oddsshark
Iowa State at Texas Tech (-12.5)
Oklahoma State at West Virginia (-7)
TCU (-9.5) at Kansas State
