Who are the pretenders and competitors in college football?
After five weeks, we’re finding out what each team can do straight up and against the spread.
Here’s a list of teams that have started out the season on a high note and we’ll judge if we’re bullish or bearish on the future second-half prognosis.
Oklahoma State, 5-0 (2-3 ATS)
We bought plenty of Oklahoma State stock at the beginning of the season. However, so far, this season, we’ve been unimpressed with the Cowboys’ ability to move the ball offensively.
Oklahoma State is under .500 against the spread, covering only against UTSA and Central Arkansas. The Cowboys have been erratic on offense, not able to pass the ball against Texas and not able to run the ball last week against Kansas State.
Going forward, the betting public may continue to make the Cowboys heavy favorites. This past week, the spread moved heavily from the opening line toward Oklahoma State’s direction, making it more than touchdown spread. We expect that to continue, and we doubt if the Cowboys can overcome such large spreads, or to win straight up.
Oklahoma State still has to travel to West Virginia and Texas Tech, and will host Oklahoma, TCU and Baylor. The meat of the schedule is still approaching, and we believe future spreads will take into account the early undefeated winning streak as a reason to favor the Cowboys.
That will be detrimental to anyone betting on the Cowboys. We’re confident Oklahoma State goes over the projected seven wins, but we’re selling our stock in the Cowboys. — Bearish
Iowa, 5-0 (4-1 ATS)
There hasn’t been too many teams better straight up or against the spread in the nation than the Hawkeyes.
It’s quite a difference from the past few years, especially in terms of winning close games. Since 2012, the Hawkeyes are 7-11 in games decided by a touchdown or less. This season, Iowa is 2-0 in games within a touchdown or less, and also defeated Iowa State by two touchdowns in a game that was one possession late into the fourth quarter.
The only loss against the spread this season was a home victory against Pittsburgh. The Hawkeyes were about touchdown favorites in that contest, and bettors should anticipate close to touchdown spreads at home for the remainder of the season.
Iowa is likely only going to be an underdog one more time this season — at Northwestern in two weeks. Other than that, Iowa should be favored in the remaining six games. We like the Hawks straight up, but we don’t like the direction of the spreads.
Just look at this week. The Hawks were a touchdown underdog to Wisconsin last week. This week, Iowa has opened as 10-point favorites against Illinois.
That’s too much of a swing against the spread, especially for a team that doesn’t usually blow out teams. We’re mixed on the Hawks. — Bullish straight up; Bearish against the spread
Northwestern, 5-0 (4-1 ATS)
If it wasn’t for Northwestern, then Iowa may be the most talked about team in the Big 10 West division.
The Wildcats’ defense has been tough on every team this season, allowing 35 total points this season in five games. This past week, in a game against Minnesota in which the Wildcats were less than a touchdown favorite, Northwestern shut out the Gophers.
We haven’t been high on the Gophers since day one, so we’re not as impressed with that victory as others.
But we are impressed with Northwestern’s ability to win games that it is supposed to win. That has been difficult in the past.
Since 2013, no team has been worse as a favorite against the spread in the Big 10. The Wildcats are 5-10 as a favorite since that time.
On the surface, it would seem the Wildcats would be favored in the rest of their games. However, if this week is any indication, oddsmakers are slow to the Northwestern party.
Northwestern is an 8.5-point underdog this week at Michigan. After that, the Wildcats will host Iowa, Penn State, Purdue and Illinois, and travel to Nebraska and Wisconsin. Northwestern should be heavy favorites against Purdue and possibly Illinois, but the other four contests should feature small spreads.
That works well in bettors’ favor. Northwestern has been great on the defensive end. If that continues, we believe Northwestern should keep doing well straight up and against the spread. — Bullish
California, 5-0 (3-2 ATS)
We’re not surprised by California’s resurgence this season.
It has been making progress during Sonny Dykes’ tenure thus far, and it was only a matter of time that California’s defense caught up enough to assist the high-flying offense.
What makes us even more confident in the Golden Bears is the comeback last week against Washington State. In the past few seasons, when California fell behind like it did last week, it lost.
But the Golden Bears came back and won, running their record to 5-0, which is one win away from achieving the season over/under.
Now, it’s time for California to earn its reputation.
When previewing the Golden Bears this season, we were concerned with the schedule at this moment. The Golden Bears still must travel to Utah, UCLA, Oregon and Stanford, and will host USC, Oregon State and Arizona State.
That’s a difficult stretch, especially with the betting public jumping on the California bandwagon, which moved the spread to 18 points against Washington State last week.
This week’s showdown with Utah is listed at seven points. With spreads at that level, we’re selling our stock of the Golden Bears. It’s been a good ride, but that schedule is too tough going forward. — Bearish
Florida, 5-0 (4-1 ATS)
Last week was a major surprise to us.
We anticipated Mississippi to utilize the speed and talent that was on full display against Alabama to overwhelm the Gators. That was opposite of what happened.
Florida was by far the better team and showed enough on offense to make us feel better for its prospects for the rest of the season.
The Gators are already 3-0 in the conference, and have been solid against the spread based on the betting public’s perception of Florida. That perception looks like it’s changing as Florida continues to get better.
Florida won three games in a row by one possession before exploding against Mississippi.
Oddsmakers will take last week’s performance into account when setting future lines. Florida has opened as a four-point favorite this week on the road against Missouri.
That number seems low and in the SEC, small spreads will likely be the case. We’ve been impressed with the Gators’ ability to improve and we anticipate that will continue. — Bullish
