Can it get any worse for me in college football? I pegged the Gators as my top pick last week and was feeling outstanding Saturday…for a half.
Then Florida did what bad teams do and the floodgates opened. That was par for the course once again for my college football picks. While my NFL prognosticating has been on fire, my college football picking has been unable to generate even the tiniest spark.
But, that’s why this is a new, fresh week and unlike past weeks, I feel pretty good about this one. So ignore the record and keep an eye on these teams in the week 5 college football best bets.
Last Week: 1-5 ATS
Overall: 7-17 ATS
Northwestern (+13) at Iowa
Many likely believe this will be a bounce back for the Hawks. Iowa has looked bad in the past two weeks, but a trip back home should heal some wounds, especially since it comes against lowly Northwestern.
But don’t be so sure of a blowout.
Iowa might not be as good as many anticipated. The first two games versus Miami (Ohio) and Iowa State were against teams currently a combined 1-7. And while the offense looked like a dynamic machine in those two games, it may have been more of a product of what team was lining up against them.
During the last two weeks, the offense hasn’t generated the same kind of efficiency and it won’t get any easier with wide receiver Matt VandeBerg out with injury.
And while we all believe Northwestern is awful (which it isn’t good), this is pretty much who the Wildcats have been. Northwestern plays close games against the majority of its opponents. Sometimes they win those games, and sometimes they don’t.
This season, they haven’t won those games. Two of their three losses have been by three points combined. If they sneak out wins in those, then the Wildcats would be 3-1 and this spread would be less than a touchdown.
This is a typical Northwestern team that will keep this close. The Wildcats likely won’t win, but it will be within two touchdowns. — Go Against The Chalk with Northwestern
Minnesota (+3) at Penn State
Remember when I predicted Minnesota to win the Big 10 West? That might be aggressive since Wisconsin is really good, but I’m sticking with the Golden Gophers being better than many gave them credit for in the beginning of the season.
Minnesota has an OK win on the resume against Oregon State in the opener and now travels to Penn State to face a team that’s been about as underwhelming as possible this season.
Had it not been for a late, furious comeback against Pittsburgh in week 2, Penn State would have been blown out by multiple touchdowns to the Panthers and Michigan. There’s just something missing in Happy Valley.
James Franklin was supposed to bring in talent, but so far, that hasn’t shown up on the field. Penn State’s once reliable defense isn’t so reliable anymore and the offense doesn’t do enough to keep that defense off the field.
Minnesota is a solid Moneyline proposition in week 5. — Go Against The Chalk with Minnesota
Kansas State (+3.5) at West Virginia
The last time I picked against West Virginia, it blew up in my face. At first if you don’t succeed, try, try again.
The Wildcats are consistently above-average. And for the most part, so is West Virginia. So, really, this should be a good matchup.
What has impressed me so far with Kansas State is that it competed extremely well in a tough spot in week 1 at Stanford. Kansas State was able to stop the Cardinal in regular fashion, but just couldn’t get enough from its offense to garner a victory.
The game was still in doubt, though, in the fourth quarter, so that showed me a lot. And in the last two weeks, the Wildcats have done what they needed to do against overmatched teams, winning 98-7.
West Virginia also has looked good, dominating the previously mentioned Tigers in week 1 and following that up with a hard-fought win last week against BYU. I’m a little concerned with the defense after BYU’s game, so it might be more susceptible to allowing Kansas State move the ball this week. If the Wildcats can keep West Virginia’s offense off the field, Kansas State could be making an early case as a team to watch in the Big 12. — Go Against The Chalk with Kansas State
Bonus Bets
Louisville at Clemson (+3) — Let’s cool our jets on the Cardinals. I know they’re really good, but the betting public swung Louisville from a 3.5-point underdog to a road favorite against last year’s national title runner-up. Clemson flexes some muscle in this game and gets back to playing good football. — Go Against The Chalk with Clemson
Wisconsin at Michigan (-10.5) — I usually love underdogs and that’s generally why I’m so bad at college football predictions. So I’ll throw in a favorite. Wisconsin is good, but it’s not as good as it showed last week. The ball bounced their way plenty of times, so Michigan will show it’s the better team. — Go Chalk with Michigan
Tennessee (-3.5) at Georgia — Is this the Tennessee team we’ve been waiting for? Georgia was fool’s gold in the early going and it will show once again this week when the Volunteers overmatch them with more talent. — Go Chalk with Tennessee
