I swung and missed on Iowa State in week 7, but it wasn’t all bad last week. I got back on track and went 4-2 against the spread.
While the overall record is atrocious, I’ve been over .500 in two of the last three weeks. That’s a major victory for me this season.
Maybe I’m finally figuring out this college football stuff. For my sanity, I can only hope. Here’s the week 8 college football best bets.
Last Week: 4-2 ATS
Overall: 16-25-1 ATS
Arkansas (+9) at Auburn
I’ve been riding the Auburn train since the season started. And I still believe the Tigers can compete against pretty much any team in the SEC West.
But isn’t this spread a little too high? This is exactly what I was talking about a few weeks ago, with oddsmakers overvaluing the Tigers. I didn’t believe that would happen this year, as it has in the past, but this line suggests otherwise.
Auburn has been on fire since opening a little slow in the early going. The offense took a few weeks to get going, but it’s looking close to the offense Auburn employed when it was competing for SEC titles.
But Arkansas isn’t a slouch. Sure, it’s been on a runaway train of difficult games, but it’s nearing the end of that gauntlent.
The Razorbacks also can keep up with the Tigers with a newfound passing game. Both of these teams are pretty even across the board in the talent department and they’ve played close games since both of these coaches have come on board. I expect this to be within a touchdown. — Go Against The Chalk with Arkansas
Oklahoma (-14) at Texas Tech
Texas Tech’s defense is bad…really bad. I can’t say I didn’t predict that, but even I didn’t know it would be this bad. The Red Raiders have allowed less than three touchdowns twice this season — against Kansas and Stephen F. Austin. In the other four games, the Red Raiders have allowed at least 44 points per game.
That’s incredible.
So I only have to give up two touchdowns against a team that’s more than likely going to give up more than six touchdowns? Please sign me up.
The Sooners hit a couple of roadblocks in the earlier part of the season, but are starting to find their groove. The defense finally hit their stride last week against Kansas State and Oklahoma has now won three straight games. When you’re spotting Oklahoma about 50 points, it’s difficult to stay within even two touchdowns. — Go Chalk with Oklahoma
Oregon State at Washington (-36.5)
I know this goes against pretty much everything I’ve done in my handicapping life. And Oregon State has been a major reason why I’ve won a few games in the past couple of weeks.
But I can’t look past Oregon State’s own coach talking about how horrible the Beavers are at throwing the ball. And that was when they had their starter at the helm.
Now Oregon State is forced to use its third-string quarterback against the best team in the Pac-12. It hasn’t been a horrible year for the Beavers so far this season. They beat California two weeks ago and covered last week against Utah. But starting a third-string quarterback on a team that already was horrible passing the football is a major red flag.
And when you’re traveling to Washington to face a team that has absolutely dismantled teams this season, I am a little worried about your prospects. I used to pay for my college tuition with backing Chris Petersen and Boise State. Oddsmakers would make those spreads outrageous and Boise State would cover.
We’re in a similar spot with the Huskies. Outside a seven-point victory at Arizona, Washington’s smallest margin of victory this season is 35 points in week 1. This won’t be close and I don’t mind giving up so many points. — Go Chalk with Washington
Bonus Bets
Colorado at Stanford (-2) — Colorado had a nice little run at the beginning of the season, but I’d like to think Stanford found itself in a road win during week 7. Stanford gets back to how it plays football and beats the Buffaloes. — Go Chalk with Stanford
Indiana at Northwestern (-2) — The Wildcats are playing their best football of the season. Both teams are similar, so I’ll give the edge to the home team. — Go Chalk with Northwestern
Washington State at Arizona State (+7.5) — Washington State is hotter, but both of these teams are similar in talent level. I can’t believe I’m getting more than a touchdown at home in this game. — Go Against The Chalk with Arizona State
