The best draft position this year might be in the middle to late first round. I don’t want a wide receiver for my first pick and the running backs I’m targeting own lesser average draft positions.
I’ve already analyzed what I would do with my draft strategy if I had picks one through four. Here’s my take on my first 10 rounds in a standard 12-team league if my team lands in the five through eight slots in the first round.
First Round
My first round pick is either going to be solid value or a reach. That doesn’t bother me. If Todd Gurley is on the board in this range, I’m snatching him up. He’s my overall top draft pick and he’s slated as No. 3 according to to an aggregate of ADPs over several draft platforms. If he gets picked before these slots, though, I’m going with a bit of a reach with Lamar Miller.
Miller’s ADP is listed at 13th, but I have him ranked with a better upside than all other running backs except for Gurley. He was the only weapon worth starting on a regular basis for Miami last season, but they continuously failed to get him the ball. With Houston, he is a three-down back on an offense that should be able to put up some points this season. He has more experience than consensus No. 3 and 4 running backs David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott, and has far less tread on his tires than the No. 2 running back Adrian Peterson. That’s a major reach at No. 5, but he will be a top-three running back by season’s end in fantasy.
Second Round
This is for picks 17 through 20 and players with those ADPs are Jordy Nelson, Brandon Marshall, Doug Martin and Eddie Lacy. With an ADP of 16, Jamaal Charles offers an interesting draft pick. If he returns to form he could be the best running back in fantasy. I believe he will be a difference-maker again, meaning that if he drops in my lap, I’ll jump on him as an RB2.
But if he’s picked before my turn lands in the second round, I’m going with another past top performer as my RB2. Lacy is in shape and Green Bay’s offense should be near impossible to stop. I love Lacy as an RB2, who has shown in the past the ability to put up major fantasy football points.
Third Round
Now it’s time to look at a WR1, just to make sure I don’t have to suffer through constant waiver wire pickups in that position. Picks 29 through 32 feature players like Aaron Rodgers, Sammy Watkins, Thomas Rawls and Demaryius Thomas. I’m waiting on a quarterback and Rawls would likely make my running back stable unstoppable, but I have to decide if Watkins or Thomas are right for me, or if I’m going to look outside of those ADPs. I’m too nervous about both of those team’s quarterbacks and Watkins’ likelihood of being a big-play threat only. Just outside of this slot is Carolina’s Kelvin Benjamin with an ADP of 35. I’m banking on him to have a breakout season as the Panthers lone option other than Greg Olsen. He’s not a great WR1, but he should own the main targets on the team, which puts him in position of contributing solid numbers each week.
Fourth Round
Now, it’s decision time. Picks 41 through 44 feature players like Randall Cobb, Olsen, DeMarco Murray and Jarvis Landry. I can either grab a difference-making tight end, pick up a solid WR2 or make my running backs the envy of the league. With Murray in this position, I like him to be a nice Flex option for my team. Murray had an awful season last year, but has shown in the past to be a solid running back when given the opportunity to fit his mold. Tennessee is going to run the ball all day with Mike Mularkey as head coach and it appears Murray is the lead back. If I can get him, I get a player who will likely get more than 20 touches per game and be on a run-first team as a Flex. I can’t pass that up.
Fifth Round
In this position with picks 53 through 56, I’m not worrying about running backs anymore, so it’s time to either strengthen my wide receivers or go with a tight end. Players with ADPs in this range are Eric Decker, Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Mathews and Michael Floyd. I’m just out of the running for Golden Tate, so if he’s available in this spot I’m taking him and Jeremy Maclin, if he’s available. However, in this exercise, they’re not, so I’m looking outside of this ADP range and going with tight end Travis Kelce. It takes away from my wide receivers, but Kelce gives me a player who will be a top-three tight end and gets plenty of red zone opportunities. I’ll have to wait on my WR2 for now.
Sixth Round
I’m still waiting on a quarterback, so I have to find a WR2 in picks 65 through 68. Two receivers are in this range, Jordan Matthews and Allen Hurns. I’m not sure where Matthews will rank in touches and Hurns is definitely not the top option for the Jaguars. With Donte Moncrief just outside of this range with an ADP of 70, I’m snatching him up, based on him possibly being Andrew Luck’s top option. If I’m facing a player like myself and he’s already gone, then John Brown, with an ADP of 71, might be a decent play with a WR2. I’m worried that he’s basically just a big-play guy, but with Larry Fitzgerald aging, he might get some more possession-type throws his way.
Seventh Round
At this juncture, I have three running backs, two wide receivers and a tight end. It’s either time to finish my wide receivers or grab a quarterback. This is for picks 77 through 80, so that puts me in line for no wide receivers, other than reaches. That’s OK, because I’ll reach a little for a player that I like to make a move up the depth chart. And as a WR3, this might make my wide receivers not be so bad every Sunday. Tyler Lockett is the best receiver on Seattle’s roster. And his ADP is 84, 37 spots lower than Seattle’s consensus top fantasy weapon Doug Baldwin. Baldwin was a major waiver wire pickup last season, but there’s no way he can duplicate that success. He was a touchdown magnet and with all signs pointing to a better second season, Lockett could be the primary weapon for Seattle by the middle of the season.
Eighth Round
With my speciality players in the bag, it’s time to finalize my quarterback decision. For picks 89 through 92, it features no quarterbacks, with Philip Rivers and Tony Romo hanging outside of those picks at 96 and 100. Romo is listed as the 12th rated QB, but I believe he can sneak into the top-five if he stays healthy. That’s a big ask, but at this juncture of the draft, I have to take a risk. Romo has the weapons and the offensive line to compete as a top-tier fantasy quarterback on a weekly basis. If he’s still on the board, I’m placing a lot of confidence in him with this pick.
Ninth Round
It’s time to build some depth or grab a kicker. With picks 101 through 104, it would be prudent to pick up Stefon Diggs at this moment, but since I already grabbed him in my previous draft, I’ll take a gamble and pick up Stephen Gostkowski, who is labeled with an ADP of 108. It’s a reach, but with my starters already taken and players who I like later in the draft, he would be someone who doesn’t disappoint on a weekly basis.
10th Round
Here’s my final pick of this draft with picks 113 to 116. Now I’m looking for depth and I can get that with Markus Wheaton. He will likely see more targets this season with Martavis Bryant gone for the season. Wheaton is likely to be the No. 2 target in a pass-friendly offense and as a WR4, he could easily slide into a starting spot if one of my players get bit by the injury bug or doesn’t perform. He creates nice depth at this position and while I have him rated higher than most, I was able to sit on him based on his low ADP.
