The AFC South is finally not a dumpster fire.
With the emergence of Jacksonville last year, all four teams — on paper — can compete for a divisional title. That is, as long as Andrew Luck is healthy.
What used to be an afterthought in the NFL, the division should be as competitive as any in the NFL.
Last year, I tallied a 2-1-1 mark in predicting win totals for the AFC South, and was all over the Jaguars. Here’s the best bets for the 2018 NFL win totals in the AFC South.
Houston Texans, over/under 9.5
This is the Deshaun Watson effect.
If Watson stays healthy and is as dynamic as he was in 2017, this isn’t a reach. The Texans were a top-five offense with him at the helm, and without him, dawdled in the bottom-10 on offense.
Houston’s personnel is well above-average, even on defense where they woefully underachieved last season, ranking in the bottom-five in yards per play.
But I don’t love this number. Expecting nine wins out of Houston is doable. Going for 10? That’s not as likely, especially with the injury history that has defined them in the past few years.
Houston will be much better than its four wins from a year ago, but the division is too tough to bet on the over. And I’m not sold on the Texans’ starters staying healthy. — Verdict: Under
Indianapolis Colts, over/under 6.5
Once again, this is all about the quarterback.
If Luck is healthy, he’s worth at least seven wins on his own. If he’s not, then the Colts will go under this amount.
The main issue with Indianapolis is that the personnel just isn’t on the same level as the other teams in this division. The defense is atrocious, ranking third from the bottom last year in yards per play allowed, the offense (without Luck) ranked last in the NFL last season.
Experts are all over the place with what to do with the Colts, with good reason. With this personnel, Luck was winning double-digit games. So if he’s ready to go, there’s very good reason to believe he can muster at least seven wins.
I’ll go with Luck’s health returning and the Colts being in the mix of a competitive division. — Verdict: Over
Jacksonville Jaguars, over/under 9.5
Be careful with the Jaguars.
I loved them last year heading into the season, thanks to being under appreciated with a tenacious defense. Now, everyone is in love with Jacksonville, and that offense is still reminiscent of 1940s football.
To get to double-digit wins again this season, the Jaguars will need to boost that offensive production, and that starts with Blake Bortles. The problem is that Jacksonville (with good reason) doesn’t trust its quarterback.
That’s a major red flag when you’re getting every team’s best shot. Jacksonville won’t sneak up on anyone this season and the offense isn’t good enough to warrant another 10-win campaign. — Verdict: Under
Tennessee Titans, over/under 7.5
I like this number.
The Titans are solid. They have a good offensive line. And they have a good defensive line.
Marcus Mariota looked injured through much of last season, so with better health, he should put up better numbers.
And the Titans made an upgrade at the head coach position.
There’s no reason to believe the Titans can’t compete for an AFC South crown. The Titans can match up in several different ways with teams, and with a better head coach, the offense will hopefully get away from that Jacksonville-style of offense.
This is a competitive division, but the Titans won’t get lost in the shuffle. — Verdict: Over
