Welcome to week 1 of the NFL season.
It’s always difficult to prognosticate in week 1 based on how the expectations will align with the product on the field. And no matter how good a team is, there are always surprises in week 1 that don’t last throughout the season.
For example, Tennessee won by a landslide in week 1 last season. The Titans won two games the rest of the season.
Last season proved to be a nice year for our best bets in the NFL. We finished 45-38-2 against the spread during the regular season.
Here’s to more success this season.
Minnesota (-2) at Tennessee
I love the fact that people are undervaluing the Vikings based on their quarterback situation. This team hasn’t been about the quarterback since 2009 when Brett Favre helped Minnesota reach the NFC Championship game.
Minnesota proved last year that it could win with marginal quarterback play. Do we expect either Shaun Hill or Sam Bradford to provide less quality than Teddy Bridgewater last season?
Bridgewater went for 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a 65.3 percent completion rate last season. Sam Bradford had a 65 percent completion rate with 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions last season.
They’re pretty much equal in their production and I doubt the limited time with the Vikings will hurt Bradford too much.
Minnesota is all about running and defense and that won’t change in week 1. I can’t believe I get less than a field goal in this game. Book the Vikings. — Go Chalk with Minnesota
San Diego (+7) at Kansas City
San Diego will be better this season. Mark my words.
The offensive line was horrendous last season and the injury bug was nasty against the Chargers. That isn’t the case this season.
Philip Rivers will have more protection, allowing him to improve upon last season’s up and down season. The running game has to be better (there’s nowhere to go but up) and I expect the defense to be improved thanks to some young pieces getting more experience.
And while the Chiefs are usually a pretty solid nine to 10-win team, there has to be some concern with Jamaal Charles missing week 1. The defense will be solid, but there’s something about San Diego playing at Arrowhead that has me excited about San Diego’s chances to keep it close.
Since Rivers’ first season in 2004, the Chargers are 6-6 in Kansas City, with the average loss by about a touchdown. The games are generally close at Arrowhead, so I expect this game to be one possession, too. — Go Against the Chalk with San Diego
Cincinnati at New York Jets (+3)
A home underdog that narrowly missed the playoffs last season? Sign me up.
The Jets still have a top-tier defense, and while I’m not convinced the offense will be as good as last season, I still believe they will have some firepower in the early going.
Cincinnati suffered some losses on the offensive side of the ball. And A.J. Green is pretty much their only dependable pass-catching option, other than running back Giovani Bernard.
The defense is still good, but will have to start without Vontaze Burfict.
I just can’t see this offense being near as good as it was last season with the losses of Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert and Mohamed Sanu.
This doesn’t mean the Jets will be better than the Bengals for the season’s duration It just means that the Jets will come out in week 1 with a victory. — Go Against the Chalk with New York
Bonus bets
Buffalo at Baltimore (-3) — Baltimore will return to its winning ways this season with a much improved offense. The Ravens show that the injuries that killed them last year are behind them. — Go Chalk with Baltimore
Oakland (+1) at New Orleans — Oakland has the better team, but New Orleans has the motivation with incidents that happened off the field in the offseason. Still, I like the Raiders to show why those young pieces have everyone so excited for the coming year. — Go Against the Chalk with Oakland
Cleveland (+4) at Philadelphia — The Eagles showed they don’t care about this season. The Hue Jackson era starts with a bang with a victory against the Eagles. — Go Against the Chalk with Cleveland
