We were on again last week with our Best Bet and Sleeper pick for the week 12 Survivor Pool. We saved a few quality teams for the latter part of the season, so hopefully you did the same thing.
Now that we’re in week 13, though, our options are running slim. However, our best bet this week wasn’t on our radar until recently.
Best Bet
Chicago Bears
How did the Bears go from an afterthought to a playoff contender? Maybe that defense should have gotten more credit earlier in the season. Remember when the Bears held down Aaron Rodgers in week 1? We all dismissed it as opening week rust.
That game, though, showed a few things that have proven true. Rodgers doesn’t have the receiver depth he once had. And that Bears secondary is good.
Chicago owns the second-best pass defense in the NFL, allowing 214.5 yards per game. The Bears don’t really sack the quarterback, with only 22 sacks total this season, but Chicago does enough to stall drives and limit opposing quarterbacks’ completion percentage.
Teams are hitting on 60.9 percent of passes against Chicago, the 10th-lowest percentage in the NFL.
That should be enough of a reason to go with the Bears against San Francisco this week. The 49ers haven’t been horrible since Blaine Gabbert took over the quarterback duties. However, he still isn’t even an average NFL quarterback.
And San Francisco’s defense is one of the worst in the NFL. We hate the 49ers going on the road this season, especially in the early afternoon window. San Francisco has played two games in the early afternoon window in a different time zone.
It’s lost by a combined 46 points in those games. Don’t think too hard on this game. Go with the Bears.
Sleeper pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tally up Tampa Bay as another team we never thought we’d use in our Survivor Pool this season.
The Buccaneers have trekked along in the 2015 season much like the Bears, and this week, they should show some muscle against the Atlanta Falcons. This is the same Falcons team that once started the season with six wins in the season’s first seven games.
Now, the Falcons have dropped four consecutive games, and haven’t looked decent doing it.
Last week, Atlanta was manhandled by a more physical Minnesota team at home, and we’re not sold on the Falcons coming back this week against another physical defense.
Tampa Bay has been solid against the run this season, allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game. In two of the last three games, the Buccaneers have allowed a combined 69 yards on the ground.
And if the Falcons can’t engineer a running game, the offense struggles. During the four-game skid, the Falcons have only once had a rusher go for more than 100 yards rushing.
Running lanes will be tough to find against Tampa Bay, which is allowing only 3.5 yards per carry. Tampa Bay likely hasn’t been used in Survivor Pools, so it could be a viable option.
Be careful
Washington Redskins
We know the difference between Washington on the road and at home. We pointed that out when the Redskins got throttled at Carolina two weeks ago.
Because of those differences, it would be easy for people to pick Washington this week at home against Dallas.
According to the experts, Dallas’ season is finished and the Redskins have new life. The only problem with that rationale is this is the NFL, where anything goes.
Like it or not, the Cowboys are still in the playoff hunt in the NFC East. That doesn’t say anything about the Cowboys being a good team. It only says something about how bad the NFC East has been this season.
Just because Tony Romo is out doesn’t mean the Cowboys can’t be competitive. Dallas didn’t win any games without Romo during his absence, but the games were close. Dallas just couldn’t close.
Washington is now in the position as favorite and that’s a different place to be for any football team. We don’t like the Redskins as favorites, and that run defense is actually fifth-worst against the run this season in the NFL. We anticipate the Cowboys to run early and often, which should put pressure on Washington’s defense.
