It’s become clear after looking at every team’s win total projections this season, three teams stand out as teams to book as going over in win totals.
Don’t worry about oddsmakers juicing the over in the process. If you’re exploiting a bad win totals number, take the less value and put it on the over. At the end of the day, winning is all that matters.
Click on the link for breakdowns of each division, featuring the AFC East, AFC South, AFC North, AFC West, NFC East, NFC North, NFC South and NFC West.
Want the best three over bets featured in those breakdowns? Here they are.
Kansas City Chiefs, over/under 7.5
When will oddsmakers ever learn?
Kansas City always wins at least eight games. During the Andy Reid era, the Chiefs have won nine games or more in each of his five seasons.
So why are we expecting anything less this season? Is it because Alex Smith now resides on the Washington Redskins? I hope not, considering it’s apparent the Chiefs, along with pretty much everyone else, saw Patrick Mahomes actually being a better talent than Smith.
Defensively, the Chiefs were atrocious last year. That will change this season with a healthy secondary.
The AFC West also isn’t as daunting as it once was and you get a solid home-field advantage with Kansas City. The over isn’t juiced too bad at -120, so you’re getting incredible value for a slam dunk.
Arizona Cardinals, over/under 5.5
There’s still plenty of talent in Arizona. And even without Bruce Arians at head coach, this offense should hum better than the version we saw last season.
Quarterback issues were aplenty for the Cardinals in 2017. With Carson Palmer aging and then a multitude of other options not performing at the position, the Cardinals’ 2017 season was destined for failure.
Mix in a week 1 injury to all-world running back David Johnson, and it would seem the Cardinals would have won less than this total in 2017. However, that wasn’t the case.
Arizona still won eight games last year, even with everything going against them. Defensively they were elite, and while I think that will drop a bit in 2018, the offense should be much improved from their 29th ranking in 2017.
With a better offense and an above-average defense, this number is way off — and this doesn’t hurt that you’re getting tremendous value at +115 with the over.
Dallas Cowboys, over/under 8.5
What’s amazing to me is how everyone attaches a certain perception to a particular season. When looking back at 2017, pretty much everyone would agree the Cowboys were failures.
Even with that failure, Dallas still won nine games. And it should be better in 2018, with a healthy offensive line (which is still dominant), and a reinstated Ezekiel Elliott.
Defensively, the Cowboys have improved from their breakout season in 2016, and I anticipate this offense will get back on track. Dak Prescott is more mature and will look more like the rookie version, instead of his sophomore-slump rendition.
Dallas will compete for an NFC East title, so expect the Cowboys to win at least nine games.
