I didn’t fare too well on the bonus bets last week, sending my record below .500 for the week 4 slate.
But every week is showing a little bit more about each team in the NFL. Some teams were overrated entering the season (i.e. Arizona and Carolina) and some were undervalued (Minnesota…again, Philadelphia, Atlanta and surprisingly Denver).
Those four teams have been a staggering 14-1 against the spread. That will change in the coming weeks, so the top teams’ ATS are worth watching over the next few weeks to see which teams are for real, and which are impostors.
There’s no faking the anticipated winners in week 5. Here’s the week 5 best bets in the NFL.
Last Week: 2-3-1 ATS
Overall: 14-9-1 ATS
Washington at Baltimore (-4)
I whiffed on my most confident pick last week with Baltimore covering at home against Oakland. It wasn’t like I was completely off since the Ravens did have an opportunity to cover late, but it was still a loss that stings into this week.
But in the NFL, the best bettors shake off last week’s results and focus on the future. So, if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.
Baltimore owns the best total defense in the NFL. Washington owns a bottom-five defense in the NFL. I already spelled out the differences in per-play averages for these teams in my Survivor pool pick, but it’s worth noting that the Redskins allow almost two more yards per play than Baltimore.
The Redskins have been decimated on the defensive side of the ball, while the Ravens have stayed relatively healthy this season. That matters as the season progresses.
Kirk Cousins has never beaten a team that finished the season above .500. He beats up on a lot of sisters of the poor. The Ravens aren’t anywhere near that level this season. Baltimore will cover this spread and it will be big. — Go Chalk with Baltimore
Buffalo (+3) at Los Angeles
Welcome to 2016, Buffalo. Rex Ryan is the ultimate at performing when his back is against the wall. I’m sure some Buffalo fans would like his teams to respond even when that isn’t the case, but I anticipate that back is still firmly planted against that wall again this week.
The Bills have moved the ball well in the last two weeks, even without star wide receiver Sammy Watkins.
Both of these teams have similar defenses. They may not be able to put together a full game of defensive stops, but there’s enough defense there that scoring will be limited.
Since that’s the case, I’m looking at the offenses, and I trust Buffalo more than Los Angeles. The Bills average almost one yard per play more than the Rams on the season and can do enough moving the chains that they should be able to win the time of possession game.
The Rams have scored better in the last two weeks, but it’s been mostly because of the big play. Los Angeles has 16 plays of 20 or more yards during the first four weeks of the season. The Bills have been more methodical, going for only 10 of those big plays.
You can’t count on those plays each week as an offense. The Bills are able to control the tempo and should keep the winning streak alive. — Go Against The Chalk with Buffalo
Tennessee (+3.5) at Miami
Sometimes a certain team just jumps off the page each week. In my case, it’s been the Titans for two years running.
I’ve included Tennessee in my best bets blog each week and I’ve gone 3-0-1 ATS with them. I was all in on them last year, too, but with far less success.
It’s not about always picking the Titans either. I picked against them in weeks 1 and 3 against Minnesota and Oakland, because I believed oddsmakers were overvaluing them. This week, I believe we’re getting a good number based on what I perceive as a bad team in Miami.
The Dolphins just aren’t very good. The Titans aren’t either, but they’ll battle until the very end. Eventually quarterback Marcus Mariota will get through this sophomore slump, and there’s no better chance at doing that than against the Dolphins.
Mariota has been under constant pressure. He’s squared off against Minnesota, Houston and Oakland in three of four games, all teams known for a strong pass rush. Against the team with the worst pass rush, Detroit, Mariota had his best game and Tennessee won.
Miami should be able to do more, but won’t create as much havoc as you would imagine. The Dolphins have 10 sacks on the season, which is good, but seven of those came against Cleveland and Seattle. Both of those teams have issues on the offensive line.
Miami is once again a bottom-five defense and allowing teams to dominate time of possession at 36 minutes, more than two minutes more than the second highest team in the NFL.
The Titans will be able to use the clock and will keep the ball away from the Dolphins enough to cover this spread. — Go Against The Chalk with Tennessee
Bonus Bets
Cincinnati (-1.5) at Dallas — The betting public is right on this one. They swung this spread from Dallas being a favorite to the Bengals being the favorite. Cincinnati flexes some muscle against the Dak attack. — Go Chalk with Cincinnati
New York Jets (+7) at Pittsburgh — The Steelers dominated last week and the Jets looked bad against Seattle. So naturally, I’m going with New York. Ryan Fitzpatrick can still move the chains. He’ll clean up the turnovers and make this close. — Go Against The Chalk with New York Jets
Philadelphia (-3) at Detroit — I’m starting to believe in Philadelphia. The defense is better and the offense knows how to move the chains. Detroit is a mess and continues its downward spiral. — Go Chalk with Philadelphia
